Now that the New York Giants have a Super Bowl win in their back pocket and football is on hiatus, sports-minded New Yorkers have to focus on something else. That something else is as unlikely as it gets.
It's Jeremy Lin, an American-born, Chinese point-guard for the New York Knicks with--no kidding--a Harvard degree. Like another recent out-of-nowhere sports hero, Tim Tebow, Lin is a heavy-duty Christian. That's not all. He's not only the fourth Asian-American to ever play in the NBA but also the first Harvard student in the league since 1954.
Just last week, no one had heard of Lin. Suddenly, as the Super Bowl smoke clears, he's the toast of New York. What happened?
Well, Knicks' coach Mike D'Antoni, in desperation, found him on the end of the bench, gave him major playing time and Lin, who's 23 and 6' 3," led the team to three victories. That's quite a feat. Wins don't come easy for this sub-.500 (11-15) Knicks team. Right now they're really in trouble. Two stars are out, Amare Stoudemire, due to a death in the family (his older brother was killed in an auto accident) and Carmelo Anthony, with a pulled groin muscle.
A third-stringer just last Saturday, Lin, whose previous high was 13 points, came off the bench against New Jersey, shocking everyone with 23 points and 7 assists. He was just getting started. Monday, as a starter against Utah, it was 28 points and 8 assists. Wednesday his streak continued, with 23 points and 10 assists against Washington--the Knicks third win in a row with their new point guard.
Just last week New York's newest hero was hanging by a thread, without permanent quarters, sleeping on the couch in the apartment of his brother, an NYU grad student. But by Tuesday he had worked out a contract with the Knicks, for just under $800,000--chicken feed by NBA standards but a lot for Lin.
Early in his career, Lin, a Californian, had some success but few thought he could ever shoot or pass well enough to be a starting NBA point guard. After leading his Palo Alto, Calif. team to a state championship in 2006, he was an outstanding player at Harvard. When the NBA ignored him in the draft last year, as the league routinely does with Ivy League players, that didn't stop him. Lin showed enough in the Dallas Mavericks' summer league to get signed by Golden State and Houston late last year but, due to circumstances that had nothing to do with skill, both dumped him.
That left the door open for New York, where the point guard position has been a mess, to sign him. None of the other candidates had worked out. Promising rookie Iman Shumpert got hurt early and Toney Douglas sunk into a shooting slump. Veteran Baron Davis, supposedly the savior, did what he usually does--get hurt when everyone is counting on him. This time it's a banged-up elbow that's keeping him out indefinitely.
But wait a minute. Is Lin a long-term answer? He's starred in only three games. Yes, like any canny point guard, he's a decent shooter, knows how to spread the floor and run the pick-and-roll. But he also can be turnover-prone. And what happens when Stoudemire and Anthony come back and the offensive focus changes? What happens when the rest of the league looks at tapes, examines his tendencies and devises plans to limit his effectiveness? What happens when the Knicks play on the road, outside the cozy confines of Madison Square Garden? What happens when he faces the better teams in the league?
Does the Lin phenomenon, dubbed Linsanity, come to an end on Friday, when the Knicks tackle the Lakers, a good Western Conference team, at the Garden? Fortunately for Lin, the Lakers will not only be playing their second game in two nights (they beat Boston in OT on Thursday) but they also have weak point guards.
Don't be surprised if Linsanity lives at least one more game.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Giants Will Win Super Bowl
Who's going to win today's Super Bowl? Will the victor be the New England Patriots, a three-point favorite, or the New York Giants?
The nod goes to the very capable underdog. All week, I've been presenting evidence why the line is off base and mainly based on the perception that Pats' QB Tom Brady is some kind of Superman and so much better than Giants' QB Eli Manning. Those pro-Pats bettors are in some dream world
In the playoffs, Manning has been the world-beater. He had to navigate a much tougher course to get his team to the Super Bowl. The Giants not only had to beat the Packers in Green Bay, with mighty Aaron Rodgers at QB, but they also had to whip the San Francisco Giants, the NFL's best team, on the road, in the rain. What have the Patriots done? Just trashed an overachieving Denver Broncos team and got lucky and slipped by a Baltimore team that actually outplayed them. The Giants earned their spot. The Pats are fortunate to be in the Super Bowl.
The betting line doesn't reflect this reaility, just bettors' blind faith in Brady and Pats' coach Bill Belichick. There's this feeling that, given time, like the two weeks between the conference championship game and the Super Bowl, that Belichick will miraculously dream up some schemes to lead his team to victory.
When you bet, though, it's wise to be rooted in reality. Here are some facts: Giants' QB Eli Manning is red hot, just like he was four years ago when they upset the Patriots, who then really were the better team; the Giants have a devastating pass rush; the Giants' defense is far superior to the Pats' D, which is one of the worst in the NFL; the Giants, who, in early December, looked like they wouldn't even make the playoffs, got hot and are on a roll--just like they were four years ago.
If you follow the facts, you'll conclude that the Giants will win handily. Manning should breeze through the bad Pats' defense, scoring 3-5 TDs. The Giants' defense, featuring an unstoppable pass rush, should clamp down on Brady, particularly with his best receiver, Rob Gronkowski, slowed by an bad ankle.
The only thing that could ruin the Giants is, of course, the inevitable X factor--turnovers. They've avoided such mistakes so far, so it's possible that the law of averages will catch up with them and they'll be undone by a rash of turnovers.
So if you bet, do you count on New York turnovers and miracles by Brady and Belichick or do you follow common sense and wager on the Giants?
My money is on the Giants.
The nod goes to the very capable underdog. All week, I've been presenting evidence why the line is off base and mainly based on the perception that Pats' QB Tom Brady is some kind of Superman and so much better than Giants' QB Eli Manning. Those pro-Pats bettors are in some dream world
In the playoffs, Manning has been the world-beater. He had to navigate a much tougher course to get his team to the Super Bowl. The Giants not only had to beat the Packers in Green Bay, with mighty Aaron Rodgers at QB, but they also had to whip the San Francisco Giants, the NFL's best team, on the road, in the rain. What have the Patriots done? Just trashed an overachieving Denver Broncos team and got lucky and slipped by a Baltimore team that actually outplayed them. The Giants earned their spot. The Pats are fortunate to be in the Super Bowl.
The betting line doesn't reflect this reaility, just bettors' blind faith in Brady and Pats' coach Bill Belichick. There's this feeling that, given time, like the two weeks between the conference championship game and the Super Bowl, that Belichick will miraculously dream up some schemes to lead his team to victory.
When you bet, though, it's wise to be rooted in reality. Here are some facts: Giants' QB Eli Manning is red hot, just like he was four years ago when they upset the Patriots, who then really were the better team; the Giants have a devastating pass rush; the Giants' defense is far superior to the Pats' D, which is one of the worst in the NFL; the Giants, who, in early December, looked like they wouldn't even make the playoffs, got hot and are on a roll--just like they were four years ago.
If you follow the facts, you'll conclude that the Giants will win handily. Manning should breeze through the bad Pats' defense, scoring 3-5 TDs. The Giants' defense, featuring an unstoppable pass rush, should clamp down on Brady, particularly with his best receiver, Rob Gronkowski, slowed by an bad ankle.
The only thing that could ruin the Giants is, of course, the inevitable X factor--turnovers. They've avoided such mistakes so far, so it's possible that the law of averages will catch up with them and they'll be undone by a rash of turnovers.
So if you bet, do you count on New York turnovers and miracles by Brady and Belichick or do you follow common sense and wager on the Giants?
My money is on the Giants.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Key Matchup--Brady vs. Giants' Pass Rush
Once again.
That three-point spread favoring the New England Patriots over the New York Giants in the Super Bowl says the worshipers of Pats' QB Tom Brady continue to bet with their hearts rather than their heads--the supreme no-no in gambling.
Forget idolatry. Think twice. Check out the key matchup in this game. It's not in New England's favor.
Quite simply, this contest rides on how well Brady handles the Giants' notorious pass rush. Can this quick, lethal front seven, lead by Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, harrass Brady into bad decisions and off-target throws? Remember, the Pats' passing attack already has one strike against it with No.1 receiving weapon Rob Gronkowski hobbled by a left-ankle sprain. Slow down the Pats' passing and you cripple the whole offense, since they'll never win on their second-rate rushing game alone. This is a pure passing team that runs primarily as a change of pace. None of their RBs is a real threat.
Undoubtedly the Pats have scoured the tape of the NFC Championship game. They've been watching in horror as the Giant pass rushers force San Francisco 49er QB Alex Smith into a so-so game. On third down plays, he was a total bust. Three things won that game for the Giants--Eli Manning's sharp passing, Kyle Williams' two colossal blunders and the Giants' brutal pass rush. In the two previous playoff games, the Giants pass rushers badgered Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers into ineffective performances.
Will it be any different for Brady? His offensive line is hardly a steel curtain. Yes, anchored by guard Logan Mankins and tackle Matt Light, the Pats' O line has provided some stellar protection for Brady, allowing just one sack in two playoff games. But holding off the Denver and Baltimore pass rushers is a lot easier than stopping the rampaging Giant rush.
The Pats do have an antidote for the Giants' pass rush. Brady's vaunted quick release can neutralize it to a degree. Also, Brady doesn't have to hang onto the ball very long since the Pats thrive on short and medium passes, which take less time to execute.
But are Brady's quick release, the Pat's O line and a solid short passing game enough to ward off the disruptive effects of that murderous Giants' pass rush?
Don't bet on it.
That three-point spread favoring the New England Patriots over the New York Giants in the Super Bowl says the worshipers of Pats' QB Tom Brady continue to bet with their hearts rather than their heads--the supreme no-no in gambling.
Forget idolatry. Think twice. Check out the key matchup in this game. It's not in New England's favor.
Quite simply, this contest rides on how well Brady handles the Giants' notorious pass rush. Can this quick, lethal front seven, lead by Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, harrass Brady into bad decisions and off-target throws? Remember, the Pats' passing attack already has one strike against it with No.1 receiving weapon Rob Gronkowski hobbled by a left-ankle sprain. Slow down the Pats' passing and you cripple the whole offense, since they'll never win on their second-rate rushing game alone. This is a pure passing team that runs primarily as a change of pace. None of their RBs is a real threat.
Undoubtedly the Pats have scoured the tape of the NFC Championship game. They've been watching in horror as the Giant pass rushers force San Francisco 49er QB Alex Smith into a so-so game. On third down plays, he was a total bust. Three things won that game for the Giants--Eli Manning's sharp passing, Kyle Williams' two colossal blunders and the Giants' brutal pass rush. In the two previous playoff games, the Giants pass rushers badgered Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers into ineffective performances.
Will it be any different for Brady? His offensive line is hardly a steel curtain. Yes, anchored by guard Logan Mankins and tackle Matt Light, the Pats' O line has provided some stellar protection for Brady, allowing just one sack in two playoff games. But holding off the Denver and Baltimore pass rushers is a lot easier than stopping the rampaging Giant rush.
The Pats do have an antidote for the Giants' pass rush. Brady's vaunted quick release can neutralize it to a degree. Also, Brady doesn't have to hang onto the ball very long since the Pats thrive on short and medium passes, which take less time to execute.
But are Brady's quick release, the Pat's O line and a solid short passing game enough to ward off the disruptive effects of that murderous Giants' pass rush?
Don't bet on it.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Patriots vs. Giants--Vital Betting Info-Pt. 3
Here's a tip to all you bettors who're dead set on wagering on a Patriots' win over the Giants in the Super Bowl, where the Pats are three-point favorites.
Examine the performance of the Giants in the NFC Championship game against the 49ers. It's a good guage of how they'll play Sunday. That Championship game, by the way, featured the two best teams of the NFL Final Four. If the Giants can whip the superior 49ers, they certainly can topple the Pats, who are not only saddled with a weak defense but will have to play with their second best offensive player, tight end Rob Gronkowski, hobbled by a bum ankle.
In the NFC Championship game, the Giants' QB Eli Manning was mercilessly harrassed by the Niners, who sacked him six times. The rush was particularly brutal in the second half. Yet he escaped time after time, engineering clutch connections with receivers. The Giants' passing game survived an attack by the best front-four in football--on the road and in the rain, no less. In the Super Bowl, the situation will be more passer-friendly. They'll not only be in a fast-tracked, weatherproof stadium but will contend with a considerably less dangerous front four.
The Pats' front seven is just OK. Quick, agile Patriots' defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, who's murder to guard as he rushes up the middle, is the main threat. With pass-rushing DE Andre Carter out, no one else is a real danger. You know the Giants' offensive line, which was really shaky most of the season but rallied in the last few games and the playoffs, is secretly happy to face the Pats' front seven. Vulnerable to big plays and not known for being particularly quick or powerful, this Pats' unit will be much easier to handle than that nightmare Niners' unit. With no ferocious pass rush to worry about, Manning, who's thrown no picks in the playoffs, is more likely to be consistently on target.
In addition, the Giants' have a mental edge, having triumphed in their last two key clashes with New England--both times as heavy underdogs. Four years ago, in the Super Bowl, at University of Phoenix stadium, the Giants, a 12.5 dog supposedly overmatched by the undefeated Pats, won 17-14. More recently, on Nov 6, as a nine-point road dog and without Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants beat the Pats, 24-20.
This time, as a slight (three-point) underdog, do you think the Giants are quaking in their boots?
C'mon...
More tomorrow.
Examine the performance of the Giants in the NFC Championship game against the 49ers. It's a good guage of how they'll play Sunday. That Championship game, by the way, featured the two best teams of the NFL Final Four. If the Giants can whip the superior 49ers, they certainly can topple the Pats, who are not only saddled with a weak defense but will have to play with their second best offensive player, tight end Rob Gronkowski, hobbled by a bum ankle.
In the NFC Championship game, the Giants' QB Eli Manning was mercilessly harrassed by the Niners, who sacked him six times. The rush was particularly brutal in the second half. Yet he escaped time after time, engineering clutch connections with receivers. The Giants' passing game survived an attack by the best front-four in football--on the road and in the rain, no less. In the Super Bowl, the situation will be more passer-friendly. They'll not only be in a fast-tracked, weatherproof stadium but will contend with a considerably less dangerous front four.
The Pats' front seven is just OK. Quick, agile Patriots' defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, who's murder to guard as he rushes up the middle, is the main threat. With pass-rushing DE Andre Carter out, no one else is a real danger. You know the Giants' offensive line, which was really shaky most of the season but rallied in the last few games and the playoffs, is secretly happy to face the Pats' front seven. Vulnerable to big plays and not known for being particularly quick or powerful, this Pats' unit will be much easier to handle than that nightmare Niners' unit. With no ferocious pass rush to worry about, Manning, who's thrown no picks in the playoffs, is more likely to be consistently on target.
In addition, the Giants' have a mental edge, having triumphed in their last two key clashes with New England--both times as heavy underdogs. Four years ago, in the Super Bowl, at University of Phoenix stadium, the Giants, a 12.5 dog supposedly overmatched by the undefeated Pats, won 17-14. More recently, on Nov 6, as a nine-point road dog and without Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants beat the Pats, 24-20.
This time, as a slight (three-point) underdog, do you think the Giants are quaking in their boots?
C'mon...
More tomorrow.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Giants vs. Patriots--Vital Betting Info, Pt.2
Bettors, outfitted as usual with blinders, still don't get it.
The Super Bowl line continues to be the New England Patriots favored by three over the New York Giants. So many gamblers are convinced that the Patriots will win, mainly because they insist that Pats' QB Tom Brady is this unstoppable force, that he can't be beaten, that he's better than Giants' QB Eli Manning.
Wrong. Forget the hype, take the blinders off, look at the facts and let them sink in.
For some reason, many are ignoring what happened in the AFC Championship game, that gift from Baltimore to New England. Who was the best QB in that game, which New England won 23-20? It wasn't Brady. The Ravens' QB Joe Flacco outplayed the Great One, constantly hitting throws in the clutch that experts swore he wasn't capable of making.
Compare their stats for that game. Flacco was 22 out of 36, for 306 yards, 2 TDs, one pick and a passer rating of 94.5. But Brady, with the same number of completions and attempts, gained just 239 yards, with no TDS, two interceptions and a puny passer rating of 57.5. Flacco won that round and he wasn't even throwing to an elite corps of receivers. Brady didn't beat Baltimore, it was mainly Baltimore that beat Baltimore.
In the Super Bowl, Brady won't be dueling grade B Flacco, but the Giants' Grade A Manning, who's much better than Flacco in just about every phase of the position. What's even scarier for the Pats is that the Giants have a top-notch receiving crew, featuring Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. In the NFC Championship game, this Giants' passing attack penetrated the 49ers' defense, one of the best in the NFL, for over 300 yards. The Patriots' secondary, featuring lead-footed safeties who are easily fooled, is one of the worst in the league. How do you think the Giants' high-voltage passing attack will fare against that unit?
The answer is obvious but many, many bettors, blinders firmly in place, won't go there. They're too busy idolizing Brady to let something like common sense get in the way.
More tomorrow.
The Super Bowl line continues to be the New England Patriots favored by three over the New York Giants. So many gamblers are convinced that the Patriots will win, mainly because they insist that Pats' QB Tom Brady is this unstoppable force, that he can't be beaten, that he's better than Giants' QB Eli Manning.
Wrong. Forget the hype, take the blinders off, look at the facts and let them sink in.
For some reason, many are ignoring what happened in the AFC Championship game, that gift from Baltimore to New England. Who was the best QB in that game, which New England won 23-20? It wasn't Brady. The Ravens' QB Joe Flacco outplayed the Great One, constantly hitting throws in the clutch that experts swore he wasn't capable of making.
Compare their stats for that game. Flacco was 22 out of 36, for 306 yards, 2 TDs, one pick and a passer rating of 94.5. But Brady, with the same number of completions and attempts, gained just 239 yards, with no TDS, two interceptions and a puny passer rating of 57.5. Flacco won that round and he wasn't even throwing to an elite corps of receivers. Brady didn't beat Baltimore, it was mainly Baltimore that beat Baltimore.
In the Super Bowl, Brady won't be dueling grade B Flacco, but the Giants' Grade A Manning, who's much better than Flacco in just about every phase of the position. What's even scarier for the Pats is that the Giants have a top-notch receiving crew, featuring Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. In the NFC Championship game, this Giants' passing attack penetrated the 49ers' defense, one of the best in the NFL, for over 300 yards. The Patriots' secondary, featuring lead-footed safeties who are easily fooled, is one of the worst in the league. How do you think the Giants' high-voltage passing attack will fare against that unit?
The answer is obvious but many, many bettors, blinders firmly in place, won't go there. They're too busy idolizing Brady to let something like common sense get in the way.
More tomorrow.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Giants vs, Patriots--Vital Betting Info
Warning:
When handicapping the Super Bowl, surveying all the info as you figure out where to put your money, watch out. Some analysts are pointing strictly at the QBs. Big mistake. The duel between the New England Patriots' Tom Brady and the New York Giants' Eli Manning is getting way too much attention. It's just part of the picture--and maybe not even the most important part.
There's a mistaken picture many of have imprinted in their heads--of Brady standing behind his line, directing receivers with the calm of a cop directing traffic, while Denver Bronco pass rushers are being manhandled by the Patriots' lineman. Wipe that image out of your mind. That's the way it was in that mismatch. It doesn't apply now. That's the Patriots' passing offense operating at peak efficiency against a slow, scared Denver defense. Even in the Ravens game the following week, that image was outdated. That's not the way it's going to be when Brady is facing the bulls in the rampaging Giants' pass rush.
Keep in mind one thing many forget--that the Partiots are lucky to be in the Super Bowl. The Ravens should have won that game. They were the better team, but were undone by boneheaded errors. Two Ravens' blunders opened the Super Bowl door and swept New England right in. First was the pass--what would have been the winning TD--that Lee (Butterfingers) Evans had in his hands before strip out of his grasp. No self-respecting receiver lets that happen. Then, a few minutes later, kicker Billy Cundiff choked big time, hooking a chip-shot attempt wide left that would have sent the game into OT, with momentum on Baltimore's side.
That's not all. The Patriots' record is deceiving, built on a cozy schedule that allowed them to get fat on the weaker AFC teams. That's how they managed to get so far with a lousy defense. Their biggest bit of luck was Denver capitalizing on the Tebow magic, home-field advantage and Steeler injuries to take down Pittsburgh. Not having to contend with the Steelers was a huge bonus for the Patriots.
When assessing the Patriots' passing game, look beyond Brady. That attack is only as good as the receivers--and the wide weceivers are a problem. Wes Welker--small, slow Wes Welker--is a relentless danger, but the rest of the Patriots receiving corps isn't much to worry about. Deion Branch is a has-been, so is Chad Ochocinco. Mediocre Matthew Slater won't scare even the worse secondary--and the Giants' secondary isn't bad.
The real threats among the Patriot's receivers are the tight ends--Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
While Hernandez can do some damage, Gronkowski--the best tight end in the AFC--is nursing a banged-up left ankle. He'll play, but won't be 100%. That means the Patriots' passing game will suffer. With his speed compromised, Gronkowski is just another big tight end--and therefore very manageable, probably by a linebacker rather than a safety.
More tomorrow.
When handicapping the Super Bowl, surveying all the info as you figure out where to put your money, watch out. Some analysts are pointing strictly at the QBs. Big mistake. The duel between the New England Patriots' Tom Brady and the New York Giants' Eli Manning is getting way too much attention. It's just part of the picture--and maybe not even the most important part.
There's a mistaken picture many of have imprinted in their heads--of Brady standing behind his line, directing receivers with the calm of a cop directing traffic, while Denver Bronco pass rushers are being manhandled by the Patriots' lineman. Wipe that image out of your mind. That's the way it was in that mismatch. It doesn't apply now. That's the Patriots' passing offense operating at peak efficiency against a slow, scared Denver defense. Even in the Ravens game the following week, that image was outdated. That's not the way it's going to be when Brady is facing the bulls in the rampaging Giants' pass rush.
Keep in mind one thing many forget--that the Partiots are lucky to be in the Super Bowl. The Ravens should have won that game. They were the better team, but were undone by boneheaded errors. Two Ravens' blunders opened the Super Bowl door and swept New England right in. First was the pass--what would have been the winning TD--that Lee (Butterfingers) Evans had in his hands before strip out of his grasp. No self-respecting receiver lets that happen. Then, a few minutes later, kicker Billy Cundiff choked big time, hooking a chip-shot attempt wide left that would have sent the game into OT, with momentum on Baltimore's side.
That's not all. The Patriots' record is deceiving, built on a cozy schedule that allowed them to get fat on the weaker AFC teams. That's how they managed to get so far with a lousy defense. Their biggest bit of luck was Denver capitalizing on the Tebow magic, home-field advantage and Steeler injuries to take down Pittsburgh. Not having to contend with the Steelers was a huge bonus for the Patriots.
When assessing the Patriots' passing game, look beyond Brady. That attack is only as good as the receivers--and the wide weceivers are a problem. Wes Welker--small, slow Wes Welker--is a relentless danger, but the rest of the Patriots receiving corps isn't much to worry about. Deion Branch is a has-been, so is Chad Ochocinco. Mediocre Matthew Slater won't scare even the worse secondary--and the Giants' secondary isn't bad.
The real threats among the Patriot's receivers are the tight ends--Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
While Hernandez can do some damage, Gronkowski--the best tight end in the AFC--is nursing a banged-up left ankle. He'll play, but won't be 100%. That means the Patriots' passing game will suffer. With his speed compromised, Gronkowski is just another big tight end--and therefore very manageable, probably by a linebacker rather than a safety.
More tomorrow.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
49ers vs Giants--Too Close To Call
New York Giants or San Francisco 49ers--who wins?
There are convincing arguments for both teams. Even the gambling community is split down the middle. The Niners are a 2-to-2.5-point favorite, but that slim margin is based primarily on home field (Candlestick Park) advantage.
Here's why you might favor the Niners. They haven't lost since Thanksgiving. They rarely make mistakes and lead the league in takeways. They just outscored the New Orleans Saints, one of the most lethal offensive machines in NFL history. In that game, their QB, Alex Smith, never played better, showing uncanny passing skills in the clutch.
We haven't yet touched on the Niners greatest asset--their defense. Of the four teams vying for the Super Bowl, the Niners have the best defense. Their front seven is the finest in football. So is their run defense. So is their famed linebacker, Patrick Willis. The Saints' passing offense is far more dangerous than the Giants'. If the Niners controlled the Saints' passing for most of the game, they should be able to clamp down on the Giants' less imposing passing attack.
In the battle of the running games, the Niners have a distinct edge. Though their ace RB Frank Gore tailed off late in the season, he did pick up 89 yards last week against the Saints in 13 carries. While finishing last in rushing in season stats, the Giant running game revved up in the last few games, finally becoming a solid threat. But RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs probably won't put a dent in the Niners' run defense, which just gives up 77.2 yards per game and held seven teams to less than 3 yards per carry.
Before you crown the Niners NFC champs, consider this. The Giants are hot, on a late season roll, much like they were in 2007, when they won the Super Bowl--in early 2008--shocking the undefeated Patriots. Giants' QB Eli Manning is also having his best year, passing for nearly 5,000 yards. He's been a monster in the clutch, with an NFL record 15 fourth-quarter TD passes and a blistering 110 fourth-quarter passer rating.
History is on the Giants side. In four previous NFC championship games, the Giants triumphed every time. Also, the Giants' defense, so-so during the season--29th against the run and 16th against the pass--is peaking, particularly the rampaging pass rush, which could unnerve Smith. In the last four games, no opponent has scored more than 20 points against New York. A tough, relentless defense could grind the no-frills 49er offense to a halt.
Also in the Giants' favor, they have more experience on the big stage, having won a Super Bowl four years ago, with QB Manning as MVP. The Niners haven't been this far in the playoffs since their heyday in the mid 90s and might succumb to rookie jitters. Though 49er QB Alex Smith has been a lion all season, he could, at any time, turn back into the erratic player of old.
And one more thing. Add rain into the mix. A wet, muddy field increases the possibility of turnovers--making them an even bigger X factor.
Do you bet this game? Probably not--way too many X factors, way too close to call. If you have to bet, take the under--with the 42 total. The defenses should control this one and keep scoring at a minimum.
Since it's essentially a coin flip, let's do that and see what happens. Heads--Giants, tails--49ers.
Tails, it is--49ers.
There are convincing arguments for both teams. Even the gambling community is split down the middle. The Niners are a 2-to-2.5-point favorite, but that slim margin is based primarily on home field (Candlestick Park) advantage.
Here's why you might favor the Niners. They haven't lost since Thanksgiving. They rarely make mistakes and lead the league in takeways. They just outscored the New Orleans Saints, one of the most lethal offensive machines in NFL history. In that game, their QB, Alex Smith, never played better, showing uncanny passing skills in the clutch.
We haven't yet touched on the Niners greatest asset--their defense. Of the four teams vying for the Super Bowl, the Niners have the best defense. Their front seven is the finest in football. So is their run defense. So is their famed linebacker, Patrick Willis. The Saints' passing offense is far more dangerous than the Giants'. If the Niners controlled the Saints' passing for most of the game, they should be able to clamp down on the Giants' less imposing passing attack.
In the battle of the running games, the Niners have a distinct edge. Though their ace RB Frank Gore tailed off late in the season, he did pick up 89 yards last week against the Saints in 13 carries. While finishing last in rushing in season stats, the Giant running game revved up in the last few games, finally becoming a solid threat. But RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs probably won't put a dent in the Niners' run defense, which just gives up 77.2 yards per game and held seven teams to less than 3 yards per carry.
Before you crown the Niners NFC champs, consider this. The Giants are hot, on a late season roll, much like they were in 2007, when they won the Super Bowl--in early 2008--shocking the undefeated Patriots. Giants' QB Eli Manning is also having his best year, passing for nearly 5,000 yards. He's been a monster in the clutch, with an NFL record 15 fourth-quarter TD passes and a blistering 110 fourth-quarter passer rating.
History is on the Giants side. In four previous NFC championship games, the Giants triumphed every time. Also, the Giants' defense, so-so during the season--29th against the run and 16th against the pass--is peaking, particularly the rampaging pass rush, which could unnerve Smith. In the last four games, no opponent has scored more than 20 points against New York. A tough, relentless defense could grind the no-frills 49er offense to a halt.
Also in the Giants' favor, they have more experience on the big stage, having won a Super Bowl four years ago, with QB Manning as MVP. The Niners haven't been this far in the playoffs since their heyday in the mid 90s and might succumb to rookie jitters. Though 49er QB Alex Smith has been a lion all season, he could, at any time, turn back into the erratic player of old.
And one more thing. Add rain into the mix. A wet, muddy field increases the possibility of turnovers--making them an even bigger X factor.
Do you bet this game? Probably not--way too many X factors, way too close to call. If you have to bet, take the under--with the 42 total. The defenses should control this one and keep scoring at a minimum.
Since it's essentially a coin flip, let's do that and see what happens. Heads--Giants, tails--49ers.
Tails, it is--49ers.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Ravens vs. Patriots--Ravens Smart Pick
Like a hot knife through butter. That's how New England Patriots' QB Tom Brady sliced through the Denver Broncos' pass defense.
Cut to this Sunday. Brady is set to do more slicing. But this time he's facing the Baltimore Ravens.
The Broncos were soft butter. The Ravens aren't.
The Broncos were finished in the first quarter. For one thing, they were playing scared, unquestionably intimidated by Brady and just ripe to be overwhelmed. The Broncos shouldn't have advanced that far and deep down they knew it. Aided by home-field advantage and an uncharacteristically sharp passing game by Tim Tebow, the Broncos sneaked by the Pittsburgh Steelers, a much better team. Hitting the winning TD in overtime, Tebow threw a perfect slant pass, outfoxing a defense set for the run. That sent the over-achieving Broncos to Foxboro for the brutal, 45-10 beatdown by the Patriots.
The feeble competition made the Patriots look much better than they are. Brady will have a tougher time taming this gritty Baltimore unit. Against the Broncos, he was calmly standing behind his line, in a comfort zone, in no danger from Denver pass rushers, waiting for receivers to get open. That's not going to happen this time. This isn't the lockdown Ravens defense of years ago but it boasts impressive stats, including being third in the league in yards allowed and fourth against the pass. Its killer pass rush and skilled secondary should make life miserable for Brady.
On the plus side for the Ravens, they conquered a top-notch Houston defense last week. The Patriots defense, second worst in the league, giving up 411.1 yards per game, will be much easier to penetrate. QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice should do significant damage against this shoddy unit.
Partly based on how badly they trashed the Broncos, the Patriots are a 7-point favorite. Oddsmakers admit that the line, due to the Denver win, is artificially inflated. A three-or-four point spread is more realistic. The line also reflects the perception that Brady, with a home-field boost, will outduel overmatched Flacco.
Look for the Ravens' defense to curtail Brady and make it a close game. If you're betting, remember the line is inflated and take the Ravens. An upset win wouldn't be a surprise.
Cut to this Sunday. Brady is set to do more slicing. But this time he's facing the Baltimore Ravens.
The Broncos were soft butter. The Ravens aren't.
The Broncos were finished in the first quarter. For one thing, they were playing scared, unquestionably intimidated by Brady and just ripe to be overwhelmed. The Broncos shouldn't have advanced that far and deep down they knew it. Aided by home-field advantage and an uncharacteristically sharp passing game by Tim Tebow, the Broncos sneaked by the Pittsburgh Steelers, a much better team. Hitting the winning TD in overtime, Tebow threw a perfect slant pass, outfoxing a defense set for the run. That sent the over-achieving Broncos to Foxboro for the brutal, 45-10 beatdown by the Patriots.
The feeble competition made the Patriots look much better than they are. Brady will have a tougher time taming this gritty Baltimore unit. Against the Broncos, he was calmly standing behind his line, in a comfort zone, in no danger from Denver pass rushers, waiting for receivers to get open. That's not going to happen this time. This isn't the lockdown Ravens defense of years ago but it boasts impressive stats, including being third in the league in yards allowed and fourth against the pass. Its killer pass rush and skilled secondary should make life miserable for Brady.
On the plus side for the Ravens, they conquered a top-notch Houston defense last week. The Patriots defense, second worst in the league, giving up 411.1 yards per game, will be much easier to penetrate. QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice should do significant damage against this shoddy unit.
Partly based on how badly they trashed the Broncos, the Patriots are a 7-point favorite. Oddsmakers admit that the line, due to the Denver win, is artificially inflated. A three-or-four point spread is more realistic. The line also reflects the perception that Brady, with a home-field boost, will outduel overmatched Flacco.
Look for the Ravens' defense to curtail Brady and make it a close game. If you're betting, remember the line is inflated and take the Ravens. An upset win wouldn't be a surprise.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
The Jets Locker Room Mess--Part 2
Just how bad was the squabbling and back-stabbing in the locker room of the New York Jets this past season? According to sources close to two players, there's already been collateral damage--the firing of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer--and there's more on the horizon.
On paper this was a playoff team, though some would dispute that claim due to the absence of a solid running game. But it was certainly better its lackluster 8-8 record. Actually, it could have been worse. A certain amount of locker-room discord is normal, say the sources, but what was going on in the Jets locker room was off the charts. This 8-8 team could just as easily been 6-10.
Apparently Schottenheimer got caught in the middle of several feuds. The most publicized was the rift between QB Mark Sanchez and WR Santonio Holmes but there were others. Some, say these sources, are rooted in off-the-field issues, such as clashes over women and the sexual preferences of certain players.
The meetings were unpleasant gatherings, snipe-fests were players often just grumbled at each other. Schottenheimer's ideas weren't the problem. Getting them executed properly by players who were grumbling at each other--that was the real problem. Under those adverse conditions, the offense never clicked. The failed offense wasn't really Schottenheimer's fault but, at the end of the season, he's the one who took the fall.
The Sanchez-Holmes feud had been simmering for a while but it flared out of control in early October when, after the 34-17 loss to Baltimore, Holmes went public, griping about the offensive line and, in particular, Sanchez. After that, the locker room, say the sources, was a minefield. The communication and camraderie needed for successful offensive production just wasn't there.
Sanchez is part of the problem. Some players just don't like him. Others complain about his work ethic, insisting he's lazy. Apparently the anonymous source, an unidentfied Jet player, who ripped into Sanchez in the media was arranged by Holmes. The source's name is still well guarded but the players figure he was just a stooge for Holmes.
Where do the Jets go from here? They've hired Tony Sparano to replace Schottenheimer, but does he have what it takes to soothe these humongus egos and patch together this broken offense? Head coach Rex Ryan watched the locker room go up in flames and watched helplessly, unable to put out the fire. The Jets can't go into a season with the bad blood between Sanchez and Holmes drowning the team.
Do they get rid of Sanchez, who clearly took a step backward last year? Many think that's the answer This will be very interesting off-season for the Jets.
On paper this was a playoff team, though some would dispute that claim due to the absence of a solid running game. But it was certainly better its lackluster 8-8 record. Actually, it could have been worse. A certain amount of locker-room discord is normal, say the sources, but what was going on in the Jets locker room was off the charts. This 8-8 team could just as easily been 6-10.
Apparently Schottenheimer got caught in the middle of several feuds. The most publicized was the rift between QB Mark Sanchez and WR Santonio Holmes but there were others. Some, say these sources, are rooted in off-the-field issues, such as clashes over women and the sexual preferences of certain players.
The meetings were unpleasant gatherings, snipe-fests were players often just grumbled at each other. Schottenheimer's ideas weren't the problem. Getting them executed properly by players who were grumbling at each other--that was the real problem. Under those adverse conditions, the offense never clicked. The failed offense wasn't really Schottenheimer's fault but, at the end of the season, he's the one who took the fall.
The Sanchez-Holmes feud had been simmering for a while but it flared out of control in early October when, after the 34-17 loss to Baltimore, Holmes went public, griping about the offensive line and, in particular, Sanchez. After that, the locker room, say the sources, was a minefield. The communication and camraderie needed for successful offensive production just wasn't there.
Sanchez is part of the problem. Some players just don't like him. Others complain about his work ethic, insisting he's lazy. Apparently the anonymous source, an unidentfied Jet player, who ripped into Sanchez in the media was arranged by Holmes. The source's name is still well guarded but the players figure he was just a stooge for Holmes.
Where do the Jets go from here? They've hired Tony Sparano to replace Schottenheimer, but does he have what it takes to soothe these humongus egos and patch together this broken offense? Head coach Rex Ryan watched the locker room go up in flames and watched helplessly, unable to put out the fire. The Jets can't go into a season with the bad blood between Sanchez and Holmes drowning the team.
Do they get rid of Sanchez, who clearly took a step backward last year? Many think that's the answer This will be very interesting off-season for the Jets.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
How the Giants Will Beat the Packers
New York Giants' Eli Manning vs. the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers.
Once again, it's dueling quarterbacks. Whoever makes the fewest mistakes, performs the best in the clutch, will win today's Giants-Packers game. It looks like another shootout, a carbon copy of the Dec. 4 match in New York, which the Green Bay won 38-35.
Most bettors don't give the Giants much of a chance, with the Pack a 7-8 point favorite. Chalk that fat spread up to faith in Rodgers, who's having a spectacular year, with his 122.5 passer rating breaking the mark Peyton Manning set in 2004. When Green Bay was still undefeated, experts were gushing about his phenomenal performance. While Eli Manning wasn't on that level, he elevated his game considerably, having his best year, with a shade under 5,000 passing yards. You can't have a discussion of the league's elite QBs without mentioning him.
Manning, though, isn't Rodgers' primary obstacle. His biggest hurdle may be that dreadful Packer defense. Rodgers spent most of the season dragging the Packers out of holes created by that defense, the worst in the league, surrendering a woeful 412 yards per game. This bad defense does have a good side, though--its skill at takeaways (tied for the league lead with 38) and picking off passes (31, tops in the league).
Aside from the Rodgers factor, another reason the Packers are such lop-sided favorites is their home-field advantage. In Green Bay, they've been on a rampage all season, not just winning every game, but burying the opposition, averaging 41 ppg while giving up just 21.4.
But the Pack will be facing a very different Giants team than the one it edged in early December. Suddenly the New York front four is a monster, spearheading wins over the Jets, Cowboys and Falcons with 13 total sacks. If the Giants are going to win, the front four has to continue its QB-harrassing ways.
Also, the Giants running game, a mess for most of the season, with Ahmad Bradshaw banged up and big Brandon Jacobs an big-time bust, has finally come alive in the last few weeks, peaking with 172 yards against the Falcons.
There's a huge X factor in the game. On January 9, the 21-year-old son of Packers' offensive coordinator Joe Philbin was found dead following a drowning accident in Wisconsin. Philbin, though, will be in the booth today, handling his chores as usual. That tragedy had to disrupt the preparation for this game. How much, it's hard to guage, but count it as a negative.
If you're betting, here's what to expect--Manning will pillage that poor Packer defense and so will the Giant running backs. Meanwhile, the New York front four will make life miserable for Rodgers. Look for the Giants to match the Pack TD for TD, at least beat the 7-8 point spread and, most likely, pull off an upset win.
Once again, it's dueling quarterbacks. Whoever makes the fewest mistakes, performs the best in the clutch, will win today's Giants-Packers game. It looks like another shootout, a carbon copy of the Dec. 4 match in New York, which the Green Bay won 38-35.
Most bettors don't give the Giants much of a chance, with the Pack a 7-8 point favorite. Chalk that fat spread up to faith in Rodgers, who's having a spectacular year, with his 122.5 passer rating breaking the mark Peyton Manning set in 2004. When Green Bay was still undefeated, experts were gushing about his phenomenal performance. While Eli Manning wasn't on that level, he elevated his game considerably, having his best year, with a shade under 5,000 passing yards. You can't have a discussion of the league's elite QBs without mentioning him.
Manning, though, isn't Rodgers' primary obstacle. His biggest hurdle may be that dreadful Packer defense. Rodgers spent most of the season dragging the Packers out of holes created by that defense, the worst in the league, surrendering a woeful 412 yards per game. This bad defense does have a good side, though--its skill at takeaways (tied for the league lead with 38) and picking off passes (31, tops in the league).
Aside from the Rodgers factor, another reason the Packers are such lop-sided favorites is their home-field advantage. In Green Bay, they've been on a rampage all season, not just winning every game, but burying the opposition, averaging 41 ppg while giving up just 21.4.
But the Pack will be facing a very different Giants team than the one it edged in early December. Suddenly the New York front four is a monster, spearheading wins over the Jets, Cowboys and Falcons with 13 total sacks. If the Giants are going to win, the front four has to continue its QB-harrassing ways.
Also, the Giants running game, a mess for most of the season, with Ahmad Bradshaw banged up and big Brandon Jacobs an big-time bust, has finally come alive in the last few weeks, peaking with 172 yards against the Falcons.
There's a huge X factor in the game. On January 9, the 21-year-old son of Packers' offensive coordinator Joe Philbin was found dead following a drowning accident in Wisconsin. Philbin, though, will be in the booth today, handling his chores as usual. That tragedy had to disrupt the preparation for this game. How much, it's hard to guage, but count it as a negative.
If you're betting, here's what to expect--Manning will pillage that poor Packer defense and so will the Giant running backs. Meanwhile, the New York front four will make life miserable for Rodgers. Look for the Giants to match the Pack TD for TD, at least beat the 7-8 point spread and, most likely, pull off an upset win.
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