NCAA Hoops Betting Suggestions

If you're filling out brackets for the men's NCAA basketball tournament or contemplating assorted wagers, keep a few things in mind:

Predicting who'll do what in the tournament is needle-in-the-haystack time. It's a maddening exercise in futility. You deserve kudos for accurately forecasting three-fourths of the sweet 16 or half of the Final Four. Doing research helps some but two problems create huge, performance-altering X factors. Both are critical, emotional issues. First, players get jittery on the Big Stage and second, it's hard to predict how they'll perform in neutral, hostile environments. Too often good teams wilt under the pressure.

Hopefully you found out in time, before completing your brackets, that Syracuse center Fab Melo is ineligible for the tournament. Apparently hours before the official statement was released, at 2:30 p.m. EST,  insiders knew he wasn't going to play. Of course that means Syracuse, the No. 1 seed in the East, won't make it to the Final Four. They won't get far without Melo, a scary, seven-foot shot-blocker who's the best defensive player in the Big East. With Melo out, Syracuse might not even get by No. 8 Kansas State, which has a strong front line, or No. 5 Vanderbilt, which beat Kentucky in the SEC tournament. If Syracuse does survive that threat, they'll get murdered by the killer defense of either No. 2 Ohio State or No. 3 Florida State. So, so long, Syracuse.

More tomorrow.

How Good is the Pac-12 Player of The Year?

How bad is the Pac-12 in men's basketball?

It's no secret that the conference is down--way down--this year, and in danger of having, embarrassingly, only one team advance to the NCAA tournament. But something just happened that shows just how bad the conference is. It named Cal guard Jorge Gutierrez Pac-12 Player of the Year.

No disrespect to Gutierrez, but if this guy its top player, the conference is in deep trouble. Handing him the award is an unintentional indictment of the league's talent level, acknowledging there wasn't much to choose from.

Gutierrez, though, does have value. A bundle of energy, he plays with incredible heart and boasts an exceptionally high basketball IQ. A top-notch leader, he fuels the Cal engine. Without him, Cal (24-8), the second-place team in the Pac-12, would be several notches worse. His signature skill, though, is playing defense. Appropriately, he was also named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year.

But the conference Player of the Year has to be an offensive force. That's not Gutierrez. He's not a big scorer, averaging just 12.9 points a game, rarely topping 20.  He's not even the best offensive threat on his own team--Allen Crabbe is.

Compare Gutierrez to players in other major conferences and he doesn't hold up very well. On most good teams in the ACC or the SEC, he wouldn't even start. Imagine him on a loaded, high-flying powerhouse like Kentucky. Have you seen those guys play? The Pac-12 Player of the Year would be no more than a role player coming off the bench, logging limited minutes.

What's sad is that, in the Pac-12,  with its low talent level, Gutierrez has no real competition. You can't point to any other Pac-12 players and argue they should have won the award. When the league is bristling with skilled athletes you can name at least half dozen players who'd be viable contenders for the award. But not this season. The other all-conference players, including Cal's Crabbe, Washington's Tony Wroten and Terrence Ross,  Colorado's Andre Roberson and Arizona's Kyle Fogg, all have holes in their game and just aren't conference Player of the Year material.

At the end of the season, Gutierrez didn't look much like the conference Player of the Year. When Cal desperately needed two wins, his game went south. In the loss to Colorado, he failed to score. When Stanford beat Cal Sunday, he contributed eight points and four turnovers. To his credit, though, he scored 22 points--19 in the second half--leading Cal to a 77-71 win over Stanford Thursday night in the Pac-12 tournament. Just in time, he emerged from that mini-slump and lived up to that Player of the Year billing.

Tiger the Tease

Tiger is a terrible tease. Once again he's tantalizing us with a spurt of great golf. Woods put on a show in the final round of the Honda Classic last weekend that had fans and media wailing. "Tiger is back, Tiger is back!"

Not so fast. He's lured us down that path before, and it's a dead end.

But he can be convincing--for a round anyway. For the first three Honda rounds he was the B-minus golfer we've been used to since Thanksgiving, 2009, wobbling into the final round nine strokes behind Rory McIlroy. It looked like he'd be lucky to finish in the Top 10.

But suddenly it was like the good old days. Tiger went on a tear, a dazzling eagle-birdie binge, breathing down McIlroy's neck, at one point just a stroke away. Eventually Tiger was tamed, finishing two strokes behind winner McIlroy, in a tie for second with Tom Gillis. Tiger's 62 was his finest final round score ever. His second place finish was his best since he won the Australian Masters in 2009, back when he was the world's top golfer.

TV ratings were up on Sunday as fans tuned in to savor Tiger's surge. No doubt there will be a huge TV audience watching this weekend when Tiger tees off in Doral, Fla., at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. The tournament will be teeming with top golfers, including McIlroy, who climbed to the No. 1 spot in the PGA rankings. Sure, there's interest in McIlroy, who's the second youngest, after Tiger, of course, to reach No. 1. But McIlroy is blah, blessed with none of Tiger's spice. McIlroy doesn't attract a big TV audience but Tiger is still a draw--golf's lone draw actually--especially after he's done decently in a tournament. What's more, he continues to be a magnet for those who don't even like golf.

When Tiger has a good day, us cynics wonder if he's back on the prowl, chasing women like he did when he was the king of golf. When he was married, all that lying and cheating apparently was good for his game. But after he was caught and his marriage dissolved, his game went down the drain. Possibly a return to raunch might elevate his game. He claims he's being a good boy these days, but maybe that 62 on Sunday signals a return to the bad-boy Tiger. We'll see.

What going to happen in Doral? Tiger will probably disappoint, as he usually does these days, remaining a shadow of himself, complete with uncertain swing and shoddy putting.

Whatever he does, we can't stop watching. If he beats the odds and becomes consistently first-rate again, millions of us don't want to miss a moment.

No question. Tiger the Tease is at it again. He's got us back in his grip.

Who's The Hidden Contributor To The NFL Bounties?

Remember that tune "Who Let the Dogs Out?"  How about a revised version: "Who Let The NFL Assassins Out?" The answer to that one is easy. We did. We fans did.

Last week, after a lengthy investigation, the NFL charged that the New Orleans Saints operate, against league rules, a bounty system, which pays defenders for hits that knock offensive stars out of games. So everybody is huffing and puffing with self-righteousness, aiming to blow down the culprits. Our stomachs are turned by the notion of NFL defensive players turned headhunters motivated by profit. Stocked by contributions from 25-30 players, the pool reportedly reached $50,000. Need some extra cash? If you played for the Saints you could make a few dollars by inflicting serious damage on some offensive star.

Sounds dirty, doesn't it? Well, it wouldn't be happening if so many of us weren't lusting for that extra dose of violence. It's what rabid fans want. It's what bettors want. If you've got money on the game and a QB is in the way, you want him mowed down. Say otherwise and you're not telling the truth. The Saints were just giving us what we wanted, and making a little cash on the side while doing it.

We like to think we're decent people and we don't want to see an enemy quarterback, running back or receiver maimed or knocked out for the season or, God forbid, for his career. But, on the other hand, we would like to see a star roughed up to the point were he's out for the game or unable to play at peak efficiency. Face it. In many of us there's a bloodthirsty streak that wants just that.

We're as guilty as the Saints.While they were in assassin mode, feathering their nests, they were simultaneously catering to our wishes. I admit it, mine too. I particularly recall that Vikings playoff game in early 2010 in which Saints' pass rushers beat the hell out of Minnesota QB Brett Farve. Though he stayed in the game, he was less effective after that unmerciful pounding. While wincing at those hits, I secretly cheered them. Why? Because I had a wager on the Saints to make it to the Super Bowl.

Were the Saints doing the right thing? Hell, no. But they were doing what millions of us wanted done, and doing it with our unofficial blessing. Those damn fools just made the mistake of getting caught.

By the way, the Saints are not alone. The bounty system is decades old. Defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan reportedly operated one in the heyday of the Chicago Bears in the mid 1980s. According to knowledgeable insiders, there are at least four other teams right now running bounty systems. Those culprits have been busily covering their tracks for months, hoping to elude persistent NFL investigators.

The Saints are waiting for the NFL to levy penalties, which should be severe. Will the punishment stop the bounties? Probably not. The brutal bounty system will just go farther underground and be protected more carefully. So, next season, when you see a QB take a particularly nasty hit or a wide receiver nearly beheaded trying to make a catch, think bounty. And if the victim is someone you'd like knocked out of the game, remember that body-rattling hit is also for you.

Fire UCLA's Coach Howland? For What?

Should UCLA coach Ben Howland be in hot water, in danger of losing his job? Certainly, but not for the reasons you think.

That notorious Sports Illustrated story, charging that the UCLA basketball program is chaotic and out of control, is a tempest in a teapot. The fear was that writer George Dohrmann had uncovered some NCAA violations that would torpedo the program. But he didn't come up with anything scandalous, nothing that people close to the program haven't known about for years. Yes, Howland can be a cold, abusive jerk. Yes, his best player, Reeves Nelson, is a bully and a bonehead who was running amuck, unchecked by the coaching staff. Yes, the players like to party.

But so what? Do you fire a coach for those accusations?

What Howland did wrong was tolerate Nelson's transgressions for way too long, allowing him to morph into a disruptive monster, menacing coaches and players. Finally, after two years of Nelson's ugly antics, Howland kicked him off the team last December. Also, the players weren't acting like choir boys and Howland didn't do anything about  it. But they were simply doing what other college boys do, what other college players do--drink, smoke weed and chase coeds. It's possible to do all that and still win basketball games. Players all over the country do it all the time.

Dohrmann dredged up no program-crushing violations--like player payoffs, like boosters paying for hookers, like players abusing steroids, like drug parties, like players hanging out with shady characters. Aside from the Nelson mess and Howland's surly personality, nothing surfaced in that story but frat-boy foolery. People close to the program way before the Howland years insist that UCLA players have been partying hard for years. But those teams were constantly winning so nobody cared.

No question Howland should have reigned Nelson in. What would Coach K or Rick Patino or Roy Williams have done in that situation? How long do you think they would have tolerated an outlaw like Nelson? But Nelson was given so much slack by Howland because he was the best player on the team, one the coach felt he couldn't afford to lose. At Duke or Kentucky or any other big-time hoops college that's routinely stocked with five-star studs, Nelson wouldn't have been The Man. He would have been surrounded by players that are equal or better. At those schools, a coach intervention probably wouldn't have been necessary. An arrogant ass like Nelson would have been squashed by the players themselves

Howland deserves blame all right, but mismanaging the team was a minor blunder. Where he blew it was in  recruiting. Since the 2006-2008 Final Four teams, he's signed talented players who haven't developed into stars. That famed No. 1 recruiting class of 2008 never amounted to much. His bad judgement and coaching skills have put him on the hot seat. It's a simple as that.

Look at Duke and Syracuse and Kansas and the other crown jewels of college hoops. There's a constant flow of pro-calibre players running through those schools. The best ones play one year and graduate to the pros. At those schools, reloading--finding more Grade A players--is a cinch. They're in the Top Ten every year. After those three consecutive Final Fours, Howland created high expectations.  Everybody thought many of the nation's best high school players would flock to Westwood, like they did in the Wooden era. But that didn't happen.

Howland's skill isn't handling super-talented players who're forced to endure that mandatory year in college before jumping to the pros. Few of those players want to come to UCLA. He's best at finding promising, B+ players and forging them into winners. He hasn't done that. For that reason, he should be hanging by a thread.

At 17-13, UCLA isn't good enough to shine this post-season. AD Dan Guerrero may dump Howland after this season but it's not likely. The coach will probably get one last chance to field a first-rate team next season in remodeled Pauley Pavilion. Howland may have signed two saviors for next season, Kyle Anderson from Jersey and Virginia's Jordan Adams.

But another season like this one, and Howland is history.

Lin Brings Out Asian Hate.

I still can't believe I saw and heard this.

Late one afternoon, at a sports-oriented bar in West Los Angeles which is a hangout for San Francisco 49er fans, two boozed-up, thirtyish guys--one black and one white-- were arguing about Asian-Americans, and who hated them more. That's right, these two nitwits, sittiing at the bar, were locked in a rather loud dispute about who was more anti-Asian-American. The bar was nearly empty and, fortunately, as far as I could see, there were no Asian-Americans present.

On the TV above the bar, they had just watched highlights of New York Knicks' Asian-American Jeremy Lin making some other point guards looks like clumsy boobs. The Lin success story had spurred the argument.

Back and forth, back and forth, these boobs were one-upping each other. "I hate them more," said the black, who was wearing an expensive-looking leather jacket. "No, no, I hate them more than you do, " countered the other guy, a short, nattily dressed blond.

Were these guys serious? The bartender, who admonished them and ordered them to pipe down, insisted they weren't joking. Their obnoxious banter continued.

"Since this Lin thing happened, Asian-Americans are the big topic in here," the bartender said about the upscale bar, which has a diverse clientele, mainly in the 25-50-age range, but apparently including very few Asian-Americans.. "Listening to bar talk I find out what people feel about Asian-Americans. I'm constantly surprised. It's not good."

Before Linsanity, Asian-Americans, he explained, had been flying under the radar and you never knew what people thought about them. But no more. Lin kicked the hornet's nest and racism came flying out. Apparently, said the bartender, customers have fun with Asian-American stereotypes and tell laundry and Chinese food jokes. Sometimes, he added, he sees people scouting the area to make sure there's no Asian-Americans around before they do their racist thing.

Assessing the attitudes that have surfaced since Linsanity surfaced, the bartender explained mournfully, "Hostility and disrespect. And these are basically decent people. You'd never think they were racist."

The two jerks were still tearing down Asians when a tall guy walked in and started talking to them. Suddenly he kissed the black guy lightly on the lips. Then the three walked out.

Picking up that I was surprised at the kiss and the questions it raised, the bartender smiled and said, "Yes, they're gay."

So these guys, who are in a minority, and are disliked and disrespected by many, are trashing another minority. "What the hell?...," I asked.

Perplexed, shaking his head, the bartender walked away.

Time To Get Rid Of UCLA Coach Ben Howland?

While watching the UCLA men's basketball team (15-12) get knocked off by wimpy St. John's (11-16) on national TV, it was hard to ignore the question bubbling like hot oil under the Bruins' many losses. It's this--is it time to say farewell to coach Ben Howland? He's been living off the good will generated by that spate of Final Four appearances last decade. But that was then and this is now, and now sucks.

To the question: "What have you done for me lately?," regarding Howland, the answer is a resounding "Not much." Losing to St John's on national TV was embarrassing. The Pac 12, which has been trashed all season, took another blow to the gut. It doesn't look good when a mid-level Pac 12 team gets knocked out by a Big East bottom-feeder.

UCLA had another reason for wanting to win this game. St. John's is coached by former Bruin coach Steve Lavin. Beating their old coach would have been a thrill for UCLA, even though Lavin is recovering from prostate cancer surgery and hasn't coached since November. But it didn't happen. From the opening tip, it was clear that St. John's was the better team.

Not the giant-killer of last season. St. John's is a bad team flopping around the nether regions of the Big East, which is mostly mediocre, a shadow of last year's monster. St; Johns' was ripe for a beatdown. A half-decent team would have left them in ruins, administering a double-digit whipping. But the Bruins, these days, aren't a half decent team.

Too often, the Bruins, who don't have a real star, looked slow and confused, prone to bad decisions, making dumb turnovers and settling for perimeter shots. They didn't look like a well-coached, motivated team. Remember, that was a constant complaint during the Lavin years. That's why the Bruins dumped him.

What makes this situation so irritating is that Howland does have talented players. These guys aren't a bunch of stiffs that no other colleges wanted. There's no Kevin Love or Russell Westbrook, but there's enough talent for the team to have a better record than 15-12. With some smart, insightful coaching Howland could have boosted the Bruins to a few more wins.

OK, it's not his fault that his best player, Reeves Nelson, is a bonehead and a locker-room cancer who had to be cut loose. And you can't blame the coach for the Josh Smith fiasco. Like everyone else, the coach wishes his prize center wasn't a lazy, fast-food junkie who's fat, out of shape and a slug in the paint.

What about next season? Howland needs more quality players. Signing super-sized, hotshot Jersey guard Kyle Anderson is a step in the right direction. Hopefully the coach can sign a few more of that calibre. And maybe he can do some good, old-fashioned coaching and help these current players reach their potential. If not, and there's another woeful season like this one, where the Bruins are barely NIT-worthy, maybe it's time for a new coach.

Jeremy Lin and The Race Card

New York Knicks' point guard Jeremy Lin's explosion to fame is a rosy, rags-to-riches story. Everybody likes to see an underdog make it. But underneath the sugar-coating, the inspirational, feel-good story, is some plain, old-fashioned racism.

Quite simply, Lin was overlooked for so long because nobody wanted to gamble on a Asian player. That was definitely the case when he was trying to get into college.

Racial stereotyping is something college coaches don't talk about honestly. But two scouts who funnel players into colleges, often with under-the-table deals, do. They remember Lin very well, when he was a very talented player in high school in Palo Alto, Calif.

Recalled one scout: "He was a good shooter and he could pass and he had decent size. You look for good floor vision and he had that. He was quick enough and he had good moves to the basket. His defense was pretty good. He was coachable--real smart and learned quickly. He wasn't athletic, like some of the black kids, but his quickness and smarts made up for that.

"A lot of kids who weren't as good as Lin got scholarships. He got killed by racial stereotyping. He could have played in the Pac 10 or the WAC or a lot of conferences. He was good enough for somebody to take a chance on. Hell, he played in Stanford's backyard and he's smart enough to get in the school. They were stupid not to sign him."

What haunted Lin, said one of the scouts, was the perception that, because he's Asian, he can't be a good player. "The coaches said they didn't want to waste a scholarship on an Asian guy who's a pretty good player.They would say they had nothing against Asians. It wasn't that they didn't like Asians. It's just they didn't think an Asian could turn into a good college player. Nobody could point to a great Asian player in college or the pros. Nobody could see him turning into a really good player.

"Here's the point. If he's the Asian Michael Jordan that's different. If he's a great player, nobody cares what color he is. But back then, he was just a good player. If he was white, with the same skills, somebody would have taken a chance on him. You saw plenty of white guys like him in college ball. But no Asians. Because he's Asian, nobody wanted to take a chance on him."

Since each school has so few, basketball scholarships are gold. Coaches don't want to  make a mistake. "Lin was a gamble that nobody wanted to make," explained one scout. "Coaches love stats. Show me one great Asian player, they'd say. Nobody could do that. Yao Ming (the Houston Rockets' center) would come up but everybody said he didn't count. They said he was freak because he was so tall and he wasn't a guard, so he didn't belong in the argument."

So Lin wound up at Harvard which, like all Ivy League schools, doesn't offer athletic scholarships and would covet a bright, skilled player like him. He merely added another stereotype to his resume. Not only is he an Asian but he also comes from a conference that has produced just a handful of pro players.

Concluded one of the scouts: "Going to Harvard made it even tougher for him to get to the pros. But he was a gutty, gritty kid. He was a smart kid who would go through a brick wall to get what he wanted. You could see that quality in him then. That's why he's setting the world on fire now."

Linsanity? Is It Doomed?

Jeremy Lin, the Chinese-American, Harvard-educated, New York Knicks point guard who's been a national sensation lately, is worn out.

Fatigue whipped him in the second half of the Minnesota game on Saturday. His legs were dead. That was clear from his second-half stats--one basket in 12 shots, after hitting 7 out of 12 in the first half. Without leg strength to elevate, jump shots go awry--and his certainly did. Three-point shooting is the real weakness in his game. He's only 3 for 17 during the Linsanity streak. In the second half of the Minnesota game he was really off target.

But Lin did score 20, guiding the Knicks (13-15), who were circling the drain not too long ago, to their fifth straight win since he's become their main point guard. The Minnesota game, which followed Friday's Laker contest, was his first back-to-back effort as a starter. Back-to-backs are tough. Playing many more minutes than he's used to finally caught up with Lin. Remember, a short while ago he was off the radar screen, buried in the minor leagues, in Erie, Pa. So playing starter's minutes, particularly in the back-to-back grind in the majors, takes some adjustment.

So where does Lin go from here? Could he become the steady, solid point guard the Knicks have desperately needed? Look at what he's done in only ten days--taken a bunch of so-so starters and backups and energized them into a winner. In the Minnesota  game, guard Iman Shumpert scored 20 points and was a major factor in the win. Credit Lin for some of that. Shumpert, a rookie some had written off as a bust, has blossomed in the last few games with Lin at the helm.

As of Tuesday, things will be different. One of the Knicks' Big Two--Amare Stoudemire--absent during nearly all of Linsanity because of a death in the family, is back. Lin will have to alter his game,  take less shots and learn to feed Stoudemire. That may not be so tough since Lin, a pick-and-roll wizard, will get to use that lethal offensive weapon with another master--Stoudemire.

What will take some adjustment is playing on the road. Tuesday's game, in Toronto against the Raptors, will be Lin's first outside Madison Square Garden since the onset of Linsanity.

Another adjustment for Lin will be learning to play starting-point-guard minutes with Carmelo Anthony--the other half of the Knicks' Big Two-on the floor. Due back at the end of the week, Anthony, who's been out during most of Linsanity with a groin pull, is a notorious ball hog who disrupts any offense. Since he was traded from Denver, the Nuggets, jelling around team-play principles, are much better without  him. Now he's the Knicks' headache. He'll be Lin's headache too.

That's not all. Another ego looms in the background. When injured point guard Baron Davis is healthy, does he take over the starting job, putting Lin back on the bench and maybe putting an end to Linsanity? It'll be interesting to see how coach Mike D"Antoni handles this one.

Kicking the Football Habit Is Hell

Do you have any of these symptoms?

Maybe you're cranky, snapping at everybody for no reason, listless, a bit depressed. Even worse, are you constantly staring aimlessly into space, experiencing a knawing feeling in the pit of your stomach or breaking into tears every hour or so? And you don't know what's bothering you.

Think about it. What's not there now, something that's occupied your weekends since late August? It's football--you're missing football. With the Super Bowl now history, this is the first weekend without football. It's a horrble, unpleasant, empty feeling. You're going through pigskin withdrawal. That's what's ailing you. Turn on the TV and there's no current football games, no pigskin comfort. Oh, what a pain.

For some people this is really serious business. I know a hard-core football gambler who, for a month after football, suffers intense stomach aches and a bad case of the shakes. Call him for the next few weeks and he doesn't even answer the phone. Ever see the 1955 Frank Sinatra drama "The Man With the Golden Arm" or the 1962 movie, "Days of Wine and Roses," starring Jack Lemmon? The Sinatra character was a junkie who eventually slogged through an ugly heroin withdrawal, while Lemmon played a drunk forced to endure the same agony when he kicked the booze habit. My gambler pal doesn't suffer at that level, but it's still high-level misery.

How do you treat it? There's really no remedy. One possible answer is to get your football fix in other ways. Some guys watch classic football games on ESPN or wallow in whatever programming is being offered on the NFL Network. Others, with foresight, tape games during the season and watch them when the withdrawal symptoms are too painful to endure, particularly during the first few weeks after the Super Bowl.

How about spending the extra time reading or involving yourself in a hobby? I know another football fanatic who spends the football off-season doing charity work. Of maybe you'll spend more time with your wife, family or girl friend. These are the people who generally get neglected when you're buried in football.

There are remedies to avoid. One unwholesome buddy stays drunk during most of the football off-season. Strangely, he doesn't touch a drop during the season. Another, a dedicated family man in the fall and early winter, handles his pigskin withdrawal by burying himself in two mistresses.

Be smart. Manage your withdrawal sensibly. Follow the good guy's route. Don't take the degenerate's way out.