How Cal Will Eke Out a Win In the Cheeze-It Bowl

Cal (7-5)  v  TCU (6-6)

Cheez-It Bowl in Arizona


  A buddy of mine joked that this game might end in 0-0 tie. Yes, it's a snarky joke but, there's some truth to it. Both teams owe their success to defense. Cal's is really good, ranked No.16 nationally. TCU's is a notch below, at No. 26.  But both have crappy offenses that will be overwhelmed by these elite defenses. If you've watched these two defenses handcuff top-flight offenses all season you can't help wondering how either of these puny offenses will ever cross the goal line. A 0-0 tie? Not so far-fetched.

Scoring on Cal will be tough. Only one team, pass-happy Washington State, passed for over 300 yards against that super secondary. In five out of the last six games, the Bear D kept opponents under 100 yards rushing. TCU doesn't have the skill players to make a dent in the Cal defense. The TCU defense, while outstanding, has some holes that Cal will be able to exploit.

TCU, which had a bad stretch mainly due to injuries, lost five out of six games and didn't seem like bowl material. But a solid 3-1 record made them bowl eligible. TCU is just happy to be in a bowl game. Cal, which hasn't been in a bowl game since 2015, feels the same way.

The odds-makers have this one as a pick-em, Agreed. This should be a close, low-scoring game. Because Cal has a slight edge on defense, look for the Bears to eke out a victory.

How Stanford Will Win The Big Game

Stanford (7-4) at (Cal (7-4)




The preseason predictions for both Cal and Stanford turned out to be dead wrong,

Back then the consensus was that Stanford, ranked in the No.10-15 range, would be in the battle for Pac12 supremacy, led by Heisman candidate, RB Bryce Love. But because Love has been banged up all season, the running game fizzled, and so did Stanford's championship hopes. So the Cardinal morphed into a passing team, led by KJ Costello, arguably the league's second best QB after Washington State's Gardner Minshew.

Originally dismissed as a bottom feeder, Cal is one of the season's surprises, clawing its way to mid-level Pac12.  Under previous coach, pass-happy Sonny Dykes, Cal was all offense and no defense. But now, with defensive specialist Justin Wilcox at the helm, the Bears have spiraled to the opposite extreme--all defense and no offense. Cal boasts the Pac12's toughest defense, featuring the conference's premiere secondary. Cal's offense, just 109th in the country, isn't just ineffective, it's a liability. In mid season Cal lost a few games because the offense was averaging nearly five turnovers a game. Wilcox solved the turnover problem by elevating Chase Garbers to starting QB, but the offense is still horrible. Last week Cal nearly blew the Colorado game because the offense hardly ever got a first down, forcing the defense to wear down in the fourth quarter because it was on the field way too long.

Cal's offense is the key to the Big Game. For the Bears to win, the offense has to sustain drives and pile up first downs and allow the defense time to take breathers. The defense has to stay fresh to contend with the slick Stanford passing game. Cal's biggest problem on offense is crappy deep passing. That translates into relying too heavily on the run game, featuring Patrick Laird and Brandon McIlwain, That, however, means trouble since Stanford has a potent rushing defense.

Can Cal's offense flourish and not drag down the defense? Cal can win if this turns into a low-scoring game dominated by defense. But if this explodes into a shootout, the Bears don't have the offensive weapons to keep up.

The scrappy, never-say-die Bears might pull this one out but that's a long shot. Everything points to Stanford, a three-point favorite which has scored 97 points in its last two games, winning its ninth straight Big Game.

Who Wins The Apple Cup? WSU Of Course

Washington (8-3) at Washington State (10-1)

This is the game of the year in the Pac12, between the two best teams in the conference. The winner of this game, known as the Apple Cup, is the king of the Pac12 North and, next week, plays Pac12 South leader Utah for the conference championship. The Apple Cup winner is really the conference champ. Next week's game is anti-climactic. Either Washington team should dominate Utah.

State has, by far, the best offense in the Pac12, averaging 40.5 points per game. It's mostly via passing, lead by QB Gardner Minshew, who is on a roll. Last week he passed for 473 yards and seven TDs, while State piled up 69 points against Pac12 patsy Arizona. In his last two  games he has passed for 9TDs and no INTs. In his last four, he's been picked off just once.

Lately the Cougars.led by Minshew's passing, have been steamrolling teams. But they won't walk all over the Huskies, who have the league's best defense. The last time State played a defense of this caliber, Cal's--which is a notch less potent than the Huskies'--the Cougars barely won. Washington will certainly slow down the Cougars' explosive passing offense. Meanwhile, the Huskies won't be scoring a lot of points. The Cougars have the second best defense in the Pac12,  so Washington's very average offense, headed by veteran QB Jake Browning, won't do a whole lot of damage'

Look for an intense, grueling, tight game with both teams scoring in the 20s. State's home field advantage will be crucial. So will Browning's veteran leadership. Like all these rivalry games this one can go either way. But playing in Pullman should tip the scales in State's favor.

Pac 12 Preview: USC, Cal win

Pac12 Pick Of The Week:

USC (5-5) at UCLA (2-8)


Don't listen to USC coach Clay Helton. He insists his job is safe even though his underachieving Trojans need a win over UCLA this weekend or next week over Notre Dame to get to six wins to become bowl eligible. He's delusional.  He's lucky he wasn't canned after Saturday's 15-14 loss to Cal. Yes the Bears' ferocious D was the main factorin that win but SC was a major contributor with stupid mistakes, including penalties, turnovers, dropped passes and a critical bad snap, all indicative of poor coaching.

Another rap against Helton is his QB management. Freshman QB JT Daniels helped blow the Cal game with a horrible second half, highlighted by a miserable passing yardage total-- 33 yards. Some think there's a better QB sitting on the Trojan bench. In his college debut, the Arizona State loss, Jack Sears passed for 235 yards and two TDs, looking considerably sharper than Daniels. But Helton has blundered choosing QBs before, starting Max Browne, who turned out to be a bust, over Sam Darnold a few years ago.

In theory SC, with its superior personnel, should easily dispose of the Bruins, whose most glaring deficiency is a terrible run defense, which allows opponents to control the game via rushing. SC doesn't have a great ground game but it's good enough to roll through the Bruins who, to make matters worse, bolster enemy passing attacks with a feeble pass rush.

SC should win this one, but if they should lose or if its an ugly victory, Helton is a goner.





Stanford (6-4) at Cal (6-4)


The Cal defense, ranked 16th in the country and the school's best in decades, is the key to this game.
In the Bears' last four games, no opponent has scored more than 20 points. In those games the run defense has been superb, not allowing any team to cross the 100-yard mark.

The run defense isn't even the star of the team's defense. Actually, that is the secondary. Stanford's strength, however, is its passing game. In four of its last five games, QB KJ Costello has passed for at least 300 yards. You don't hear as much about Costello since Washington State QB Gardner Minshew, who's having a Heisman year, gets all the attention in discussions about Pac12 QBs. Costello, though, is having a great year, which is a bonus for Stanford because its running game has gone down the drain, since injuries have slowed star RB Bryce Love.

Stanford is a good team with a sturdy defense. Its four losses have been to teams currently in the Top 20. Its defense shouldn't have much trouble with Cal's wimpy offense. Essentially this game comes down to Cal's defense vs. the Stanford passing game. Who will get the upper hand?

It could go either way. You know how these rivalry games are. I'm leaning toward a Cal victory, based on the excellence of its defense, in a low-scoring game, but a Stanford win wouldn't surprise me.

Will Cal Finally Whip USC? YES!!!!!!

Pac12 Pick of The Week

Cal (5-4) at USC (5-4)


For the past 14 years Cal has been a patsy for SC--a guaranteed win. The Trojans are always much better, while Cal has hardly ever had a chance. This year, though, is different. Both have the same record, but Cal is actually superior. Here's one indication. With Utah at half strength due to key injuries, at the moment the two best teams in the Pac12 are Washington State and Washington. Well Cal beat Washington and last week lost to Washington State in the last minute, breaking a fourth-quarter tie. SC, however, has staggered through its conference schedule.

Because of too many shoddy performances by his team, Trojan coach Clay Helton may be out the door at the end of the season. SC, with three games left, needs a win to go to a bowl. They could easily lose to Cal or UCLA and most certainly will be trampled by No. 3 Notre Dame. For Helton to keep his job, the Trojans probably have to run the table--a real long shot.

This is far from the usual Trojan powerhouse. Their biggest problem may be at the QB position, with freshman J.T. Daniels a victim of inexperience and injuries. SC's usual strength, the offense line, has been a primary weakness. The defense has forced only seven turnovers and hasn't had an INT in its last three games. Another glaring negative: the team has been plagued by penalties, a sign of sloppy coaching.

Cal's major strength is a strong defense--bolstered by an exceptional secondary--that doesn't surrender many points. But its offense is weak. Cal generally ekes out victories in low-scoring games. If an opponent jumps out to a big lead Cal lacks the offensive punch to catch up.

Like USC, Cal needs a victory in its last three games--against the Trojans, Stanford and Colorado--to get a bowl bid for the first time in years. But beating USC, a five-point favorite, will be really tough. SC both plays well at home and in November, while Cal is a lousy road team.

Because of Cal strengths and SC's holes, this is Cal's best chance of beating the Trojans since that embarrassing string of losses began 14 years go. Last month Cal lost a string of games due to a rash of turnovers. Though they have cut down on the turnovers, that last-second loss to Washington State last week was set up by a turnover.

Cal usually finds a way to lose at the LA Coliseum but, this time, against a weaker-than-usual SC team, I'm gonna climb out on a limb and predict that the Bears will finally win one.

Pac12 Preview: Washington St Beats Cal, UCLA Loses

Pac12 Pick of the Week:

Cal (5-3) at No. 8 Washington State (7-1)

Though the Cougars deny it, there is a revenge factor in this one. Last year, when State was riding high--undefeated and in the Top Ten--they were shot down, 37-3, in Berkeley by the lowly Bears, who forced seven turnovers and spoiled their season. That won't happen this time. First of all, State is at home and Cal is a miserable road team. When the Bears routed Oregon State two weeks ago, that broke the Bears' conference road losing streak that dated back to 2015. Oregon State is awful. Cal still hasn't whipped a decent Pac12 team on the road in years. They aren't going to start this weekend.

This year State is just too good, with a close road loss to USC the lone blemish on its record. Like the flashy Oklahoma teams, State is propelled by a powerhouse passing game. QB Gardner Minshew,  a serious Heisman candidate, heads a unit that leads the nation in passing yards, 3183, topping 300 yards every game and 400 yards five times.

It'll take a skilled defense to corral the Cougars. Cal, though,  has that kind of defense. It'll be the best the Cougars have faced all season and the lone top-notch one they will confront until going up against Washington in a few weeks. In its last two games the Cal defense has given up only seven points to Oregon State and ten to Washington. The jewel of that defense is the super secondary, which has surrendered more than 200 yards just once, to Oregon QB whiz, Justin Herbert. Having to penetrate that secondary should slow down the State passing game.

Cal's problem is its very ordinary, low-scoring offense. If Minshew is able to get the State passing game to operate efficiently, Cal is cooked. They simply can't win a fast-paced scoring battle. The offense, however, has stopped self-destructing. For a three-game stretch, it was averaging about five turnovers a game.  But in the last two it has just one turnover. Penalties are down too. The total in Cal's last two games is a meager four.

Look for State, a 9 1/2 point favorite, to win this one. If the Cal defense is at the top of its game, the score will be close.



UCLA (2-6) at Oregon (5-3)

What's important about this game isn't the game itself. It's that it marks the return of Bruin coach Chip Kelly to Eugene, where he established himself as a first-rate coach. Kelly would dearly love to beat up his old team, but that's not going to happen. Last week, the Bruins were crushed by Utah. This week, they will most likely be crushed by the Ducks.

Oregon, which seemed like a Top 20 team early in the season. has been exposed as a subpar outfit, burdened with a bad defense. They were trashed last week by Arizona and looked horrible, particularly QB Herbert. But this week the Ducks get to take out their frustrations on a team that's in even worse shape. The Bruins are a mess, with QB problems, defensive woes, etc. You name it and it's going wrong for the Bruins.

An antidote for a reeling team is playing a team with more problems. For the Ducks, a 10-point favorite, the staggering Bruins are just what the doctor ordered.

Pac12 Preview: Washington State, Washington Win

Pac12 Pick of The Week:

No. 14 Washington State (6-1) at No. 24 Stanford (5-2):


This game comes down to State's strength against Stanford's weakness. The Cougars have a powerhouse, machine-gun-like passing attack that has piled up more than 300 yards in seven straight games and several times has even crossed the 400-yard mark. Cougar QB Gardner Minshew is hitting over 70% of his passes, thrown 23 TD passes and, with a month's worth of games left, has an impressive passing yardage total, 2745 yards, second highest in the country.


What kind of pass defense can Stanford present to challenge such a fearsome attack? Put is this way. Last week an obscure QB, Arizona State's Manny Wilkins, passed for 353 yards against Stanford's slow, soft secondary. Imagine the damage Minshew will do.

Even more ominous for Stanford, State has a run defense that's like a brick wall. So Stanford's cream-puff running game will look even flimsier. Their passing attack isn't strong enough to pick up the slack. So where are the Stanford points going to come from? That's their primary problem.

On paper, State should trample Stanford. But things don't always play out the way they're supposed to. State isn't used to leading the Pac12 this late in the season. Could they have a meltdown and crumble? It's possible--but not likely.

Because it's a Stanford home game they are favored by 3. Though winning a conference road game is tough, look for State to win this one fairly easily.



No.15 Washington at Cal:


Don't read too much into Cal's 49-7 rout of Oregon State last week. Remember it was Oregon State, the worst team in the conference. The difference was that the Bears had only one turnover, after averaging nearly five a game in a three-game losing streak. Also, at QB, Chase Garbers, a polished passer, replaced Brandon McIlwain, who had been responsible for most of the turnovers. McIlwain had been the starter, to take advantage of his marvelous running skills but, because of the turnovers, he had become a liability.

Cal's main plus in this one is home field advantage. But that is not enough. Washington is, by far, the superior team and should prevail. The Huskies' speedy, savvy defense should bottle up Cal's offense, which lacks a field-stretching, deep-passing game to ease the pressure on hard-running RB Patrick Laird.  Washington never blows away opponents because their offense, lead by efficient QB Jake Browning, is barely above average and usually does just enough to win.

Cal's excellent pass defense should slow down the Washington offense and keep the game competitive, Favored by 11 1/2 points, the Huskies usually play just well enough to win. They should win this one, but might not cover the spread. So if you're betting, taking Cal is the smart move.

Pac12 Preview:Utah Overruns UCLA

Utah (5-2) at UCLA (2-5)

After an abysmal 0-5 start the Bruins deserve mountains of praise for markedly improving and mounting a two-game winning streak. But upgraded UCLA isn't ready to be competitive with Utah, arguably the best team in the Pac12. The Utah buzz-saw is going to grind up the gutty little Bruins.

Last week the Utes destroyed a decent USC team 41-28 (it wasn't that close), with QB Tyler Huntley passing for 341 yards and four TDs and RB Zack Moss running for 156 yards. If the Utes dominated USC what are they going to do to UCLA, which is quite a few notches below USC? For the Bruins to have a chance against Utah they need freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson to be in tip-top shape. But he banged up his throwing shoulder last week against Arizona and may not play. His backup Wilson Speight is no match for the Utes.

While Utah has a superb offense, its strength is its defense, which is the best in the Pac12, giving up less than 300 yards a game. Its signatures are a murderous pass rush and a rushing defense (74.6 yards per game)) that leads the nation.

Considering the Bruins are weaker at QB, they could easily be blown out by the Utes, who are 10 1/2 point favorites.

Pac12 Preview: Washington State, UCLA and Cal Win

Pac12 Pick of the Week:


No.12 Oregon (5-1) at No. 25 Washington State (5-1)

Parity reigns in the Pac12. There are no dominant teams, just four or five very good ones, including Washington State and Oregon, which are basically equal.

But the Cougars have the edge here, not only playing with two weeks off but also playing at home. Oregon thought they had it tough against Washington last week, but Duck QB Justin Herbert was able to operate back then with little pressure. It will be different in Pullman, where the defense will give him far less time to pass.

The Ducks' defense hasn't faced a passing offense like the Cougars'--one filled with lightening strikes. State QB Gardner Minshew is one of the best in the country--and one of the best kept secrets since playing in Pullman is flying under the radar. Minshew's stats are startling. The Cougars average over 400 yards a game passing, with Minshew hitting 19 TDs with only 4 INTs.

Overall Oregon is the better team, but look for State, a two-point favorite, to win Saturday and for Minshew to out-duel the much heralded Herbert.


Arizona (3-4) at UCLA (1-5)

This one is easy. All you need to know is that Arizona QB Khalil Tate, a monster dual-threat weapon and the heart and soul of the team, is out. If he's healthy, the Wildcats have a chance against anybody in the Pac12, Without him, forget it.

The Bruins are riding high, with back-to-back solid games against Washington and Cal. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is suddenly one of the best in the conference, hitting 40 out of 53 passes in the last two games, adding a deep-passing game to the offense. The O line has developed into a skilled unit, opening holes for RB Joshua Kelley, who now boasts a string of three 100-plus-yard games.

Arizona's Backup QB Rhett Rodriguez is just average and their run game is wildly inconsistent. The Bruins should stampede through the Wildcats' bad rushing defense. The Bruins, 8-point favorites, should cruise. If you are betting, take UCLA.

Cal (3-3) at Oregon State (1-5)

The worst team in the Pac12? It used to be Oregon State, but Cal, with three straight losses, is challenging for the title of best bottom-feeder.

The Bears, however, just might claw their way out of this losing streak. Their primary
problem has been turnovers, with a staggering total of 14 in the last three games. But the Beavers' defense has caused just five turnovers all season. That's just one of its deficiencies. Its most damaging flaw may be its inability to stop opponents on third-down plays. In that category State's D is last in the country. Also in Cal's favor is that State's weak run defense shouldn't be an obstacle to the Bears' strength--its run game, which stars Patrick Laird.

But the Bears, a seven-point favorite, are no cinch to win this one. A nagging hangup is an inability to win on the road. They haven't done it since 2016. However the Beavers' awful defense shouldn't get in the way and the Bears should easily handle their offense, which features just one big gun--freshman RB Jermar Jefferson, one of the best in the conference. It would help if the Bears were more effective at downfield passing but their ground game should be enough.

Prediction: Cal QB Brandon McIlwain stops throwing INTs and Cal finally conquers The Curse of The Road.

Pac12 Preview: Oregon, USC, Cal, USC Wins

Pac12 Pick of the week: Washington (5-1) at Oregon (4-1)

The consensus is that Washington is the best team in the conference. Wrong. Oregon actually deserves that title.The Ducks were minutes away from being 5-0, but late in the Stanford game a few weeks ago they made some boneheaded plays and blew a game they had in the bag.

Oregon can remove any doubt about who's best by whipping the Huskies this weekend. It's mostly up to Duck QB Justin Herbert, arguably the best college player in the country. He's burning up the Pac12, hitting 76% of his passes in conference contests, while averaging more than ten yards per throw.

Washington has a superb defense which is primarily expert at stopping the run. When it comes to pass rush and sacks, however, the Huskies are just so-so. The Ducks' O line should give Herbert time--though with that quick release he doesn't need much time--to decimate that Washington defense. The Huskies' offense has never been that lethal, though it's been scarier in recent weeks since QB Jake Browning has sharpened both his mid-range and deep-passing games

Here's a sobering thought. UCLA freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson lit up the Huskies defense for 272 yards , hitting 71% of his passes and two TDs. If an unpolished freshman can do that to the Huskies' defense, what kind of damage can Herbert do?

Though favored by 3 1/2 points, Washington will fall to the Ducks.


UCLA (0-5) at Cal (3-2)

The most important aspect of this game is its location. It's in Berkeley. That most likely means a Cal victory. Give the Bears a losing team at home, especially a win-less team like the Bruins that counts heavily on underclassmen and you'll most likely get a Cal win,

But not so fast. The Young Bruins are improving, particularly QB Thompson-Robinson and RB Joshua Kelly, who has piled up 249 yards in the last two games. They don't score much. That 24 points they scored in the 31-24 Washington loss last week was the most they have scored all season. But that was by far their best game of the season. It was all the more impressive considering it came against the best team in the conference.

Cal is the better team but is horribly mistake-prone, with 14 turnovers in the last four games. One of Cal's few assets is nifty running QB Brandon McIlwain. But they have many deficiencies, like no deep passing game and no pass rush. Very easily, the Bears could commit a slew of turnovers and lose this game.

But the young Bruins aren't likely to play their best on the road so, with great caution, I predict Cal wins this one.

Colorado (5-0) at USC (5-2)

Oregon QB Herbert may be the best pro prospect among the conference's QBs but the most effective by far at the position is Colorado's Steven Montez, who has put the Buffalos on his back and carried them to respectability. He faces his toughest task this weekend at the LA Coliseum,

His problem  is two-fold. First he has to beat a conference team on the road, which is hard to do. Second, this is no ordinary conference team. It's one Colorado has never defeated, losing twelve times, dating back to 1927.

By high SC standards, this is a fairly ordinary Trojan team, riddled with flaws, like its penchant for committing penalties, while rarely generating turnovers. The guts of the offense is up-and-down freshman QB, JT Daniels, and a suddenly explosive RB Aca'Cedric White. After a shaky start due to Daniels' inexperience, the offense is finally clicking.

These two teams are fairly equal. The question is can QB Montez play at the top of his game and power the Buffs to a road win, finally shattering that long losing streak. He's unlikely do it on the road.

USC wins this one.