Pac12 Preview: Washington State, Washington Win

Pac12 Pick of The Week:

No. 14 Washington State (6-1) at No. 24 Stanford (5-2):


This game comes down to State's strength against Stanford's weakness. The Cougars have a powerhouse, machine-gun-like passing attack that has piled up more than 300 yards in seven straight games and several times has even crossed the 400-yard mark. Cougar QB Gardner Minshew is hitting over 70% of his passes, thrown 23 TD passes and, with a month's worth of games left, has an impressive passing yardage total, 2745 yards, second highest in the country.


What kind of pass defense can Stanford present to challenge such a fearsome attack? Put is this way. Last week an obscure QB, Arizona State's Manny Wilkins, passed for 353 yards against Stanford's slow, soft secondary. Imagine the damage Minshew will do.

Even more ominous for Stanford, State has a run defense that's like a brick wall. So Stanford's cream-puff running game will look even flimsier. Their passing attack isn't strong enough to pick up the slack. So where are the Stanford points going to come from? That's their primary problem.

On paper, State should trample Stanford. But things don't always play out the way they're supposed to. State isn't used to leading the Pac12 this late in the season. Could they have a meltdown and crumble? It's possible--but not likely.

Because it's a Stanford home game they are favored by 3. Though winning a conference road game is tough, look for State to win this one fairly easily.



No.15 Washington at Cal:


Don't read too much into Cal's 49-7 rout of Oregon State last week. Remember it was Oregon State, the worst team in the conference. The difference was that the Bears had only one turnover, after averaging nearly five a game in a three-game losing streak. Also, at QB, Chase Garbers, a polished passer, replaced Brandon McIlwain, who had been responsible for most of the turnovers. McIlwain had been the starter, to take advantage of his marvelous running skills but, because of the turnovers, he had become a liability.

Cal's main plus in this one is home field advantage. But that is not enough. Washington is, by far, the superior team and should prevail. The Huskies' speedy, savvy defense should bottle up Cal's offense, which lacks a field-stretching, deep-passing game to ease the pressure on hard-running RB Patrick Laird.  Washington never blows away opponents because their offense, lead by efficient QB Jake Browning, is barely above average and usually does just enough to win.

Cal's excellent pass defense should slow down the Washington offense and keep the game competitive, Favored by 11 1/2 points, the Huskies usually play just well enough to win. They should win this one, but might not cover the spread. So if you're betting, taking Cal is the smart move.

Pac12 Preview:Utah Overruns UCLA

Utah (5-2) at UCLA (2-5)

After an abysmal 0-5 start the Bruins deserve mountains of praise for markedly improving and mounting a two-game winning streak. But upgraded UCLA isn't ready to be competitive with Utah, arguably the best team in the Pac12. The Utah buzz-saw is going to grind up the gutty little Bruins.

Last week the Utes destroyed a decent USC team 41-28 (it wasn't that close), with QB Tyler Huntley passing for 341 yards and four TDs and RB Zack Moss running for 156 yards. If the Utes dominated USC what are they going to do to UCLA, which is quite a few notches below USC? For the Bruins to have a chance against Utah they need freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson to be in tip-top shape. But he banged up his throwing shoulder last week against Arizona and may not play. His backup Wilson Speight is no match for the Utes.

While Utah has a superb offense, its strength is its defense, which is the best in the Pac12, giving up less than 300 yards a game. Its signatures are a murderous pass rush and a rushing defense (74.6 yards per game)) that leads the nation.

Considering the Bruins are weaker at QB, they could easily be blown out by the Utes, who are 10 1/2 point favorites.

Pac12 Preview: Washington State, UCLA and Cal Win

Pac12 Pick of the Week:


No.12 Oregon (5-1) at No. 25 Washington State (5-1)

Parity reigns in the Pac12. There are no dominant teams, just four or five very good ones, including Washington State and Oregon, which are basically equal.

But the Cougars have the edge here, not only playing with two weeks off but also playing at home. Oregon thought they had it tough against Washington last week, but Duck QB Justin Herbert was able to operate back then with little pressure. It will be different in Pullman, where the defense will give him far less time to pass.

The Ducks' defense hasn't faced a passing offense like the Cougars'--one filled with lightening strikes. State QB Gardner Minshew is one of the best in the country--and one of the best kept secrets since playing in Pullman is flying under the radar. Minshew's stats are startling. The Cougars average over 400 yards a game passing, with Minshew hitting 19 TDs with only 4 INTs.

Overall Oregon is the better team, but look for State, a two-point favorite, to win Saturday and for Minshew to out-duel the much heralded Herbert.


Arizona (3-4) at UCLA (1-5)

This one is easy. All you need to know is that Arizona QB Khalil Tate, a monster dual-threat weapon and the heart and soul of the team, is out. If he's healthy, the Wildcats have a chance against anybody in the Pac12, Without him, forget it.

The Bruins are riding high, with back-to-back solid games against Washington and Cal. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is suddenly one of the best in the conference, hitting 40 out of 53 passes in the last two games, adding a deep-passing game to the offense. The O line has developed into a skilled unit, opening holes for RB Joshua Kelley, who now boasts a string of three 100-plus-yard games.

Arizona's Backup QB Rhett Rodriguez is just average and their run game is wildly inconsistent. The Bruins should stampede through the Wildcats' bad rushing defense. The Bruins, 8-point favorites, should cruise. If you are betting, take UCLA.

Cal (3-3) at Oregon State (1-5)

The worst team in the Pac12? It used to be Oregon State, but Cal, with three straight losses, is challenging for the title of best bottom-feeder.

The Bears, however, just might claw their way out of this losing streak. Their primary
problem has been turnovers, with a staggering total of 14 in the last three games. But the Beavers' defense has caused just five turnovers all season. That's just one of its deficiencies. Its most damaging flaw may be its inability to stop opponents on third-down plays. In that category State's D is last in the country. Also in Cal's favor is that State's weak run defense shouldn't be an obstacle to the Bears' strength--its run game, which stars Patrick Laird.

But the Bears, a seven-point favorite, are no cinch to win this one. A nagging hangup is an inability to win on the road. They haven't done it since 2016. However the Beavers' awful defense shouldn't get in the way and the Bears should easily handle their offense, which features just one big gun--freshman RB Jermar Jefferson, one of the best in the conference. It would help if the Bears were more effective at downfield passing but their ground game should be enough.

Prediction: Cal QB Brandon McIlwain stops throwing INTs and Cal finally conquers The Curse of The Road.

Pac12 Preview: Oregon, USC, Cal, USC Wins

Pac12 Pick of the week: Washington (5-1) at Oregon (4-1)

The consensus is that Washington is the best team in the conference. Wrong. Oregon actually deserves that title.The Ducks were minutes away from being 5-0, but late in the Stanford game a few weeks ago they made some boneheaded plays and blew a game they had in the bag.

Oregon can remove any doubt about who's best by whipping the Huskies this weekend. It's mostly up to Duck QB Justin Herbert, arguably the best college player in the country. He's burning up the Pac12, hitting 76% of his passes in conference contests, while averaging more than ten yards per throw.

Washington has a superb defense which is primarily expert at stopping the run. When it comes to pass rush and sacks, however, the Huskies are just so-so. The Ducks' O line should give Herbert time--though with that quick release he doesn't need much time--to decimate that Washington defense. The Huskies' offense has never been that lethal, though it's been scarier in recent weeks since QB Jake Browning has sharpened both his mid-range and deep-passing games

Here's a sobering thought. UCLA freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson lit up the Huskies defense for 272 yards , hitting 71% of his passes and two TDs. If an unpolished freshman can do that to the Huskies' defense, what kind of damage can Herbert do?

Though favored by 3 1/2 points, Washington will fall to the Ducks.


UCLA (0-5) at Cal (3-2)

The most important aspect of this game is its location. It's in Berkeley. That most likely means a Cal victory. Give the Bears a losing team at home, especially a win-less team like the Bruins that counts heavily on underclassmen and you'll most likely get a Cal win,

But not so fast. The Young Bruins are improving, particularly QB Thompson-Robinson and RB Joshua Kelly, who has piled up 249 yards in the last two games. They don't score much. That 24 points they scored in the 31-24 Washington loss last week was the most they have scored all season. But that was by far their best game of the season. It was all the more impressive considering it came against the best team in the conference.

Cal is the better team but is horribly mistake-prone, with 14 turnovers in the last four games. One of Cal's few assets is nifty running QB Brandon McIlwain. But they have many deficiencies, like no deep passing game and no pass rush. Very easily, the Bears could commit a slew of turnovers and lose this game.

But the young Bruins aren't likely to play their best on the road so, with great caution, I predict Cal wins this one.

Colorado (5-0) at USC (5-2)

Oregon QB Herbert may be the best pro prospect among the conference's QBs but the most effective by far at the position is Colorado's Steven Montez, who has put the Buffalos on his back and carried them to respectability. He faces his toughest task this weekend at the LA Coliseum,

His problem  is two-fold. First he has to beat a conference team on the road, which is hard to do. Second, this is no ordinary conference team. It's one Colorado has never defeated, losing twelve times, dating back to 1927.

By high SC standards, this is a fairly ordinary Trojan team, riddled with flaws, like its penchant for committing penalties, while rarely generating turnovers. The guts of the offense is up-and-down freshman QB, JT Daniels, and a suddenly explosive RB Aca'Cedric White. After a shaky start due to Daniels' inexperience, the offense is finally clicking.

These two teams are fairly equal. The question is can QB Montez play at the top of his game and power the Buffs to a road win, finally shattering that long losing streak. He's unlikely do it on the road.

USC wins this one.

Pac12 Preview: Washington and Cal Win

Let's face it. This Rose Bowl battle between the worst in the Pac12 (0-4 UCLA) and by far the best (3-1 Washington), is one Bruins can't possibly win. The quality gap between the players of these teams is enormous. If Husky coach Chris Petersen rested his starters and played only the backups the Bruins might have a shot.

Here's the core of this contest. Washington's strength is its blazing fast, swarming defense, which leads the country in scoring defense, and will mercilessly destroy the Bruins' awful offense line, the team's major weakness. Because of the O line, the Bruins can't run, averaging a pathetic 136 yards a game. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who looks totally confused at times, gets a little better each week but he's still a long way from being a polished field general.

On offense Washington is no Oklahoma, so they are unlikely to sweep the Bruins away with a tsunami of points. That's because Husky QB Jake Browning is good but far from great, so the offense doesn't blow opponents out. Don't be surprised if UCLA, at home, starts feeling its oats and beats that 21-point spread.

Cal  (3-1) v Arizona ( 2-3) in Tuscon

Some pundits say Cal, which started at 3-0 and rose to No. 24, didn't belong in the top 25 because two of the wins were over patsies and one was only over fairly decent BYU. Boy, were the pundits right. When the Bears faced a really good Oregon team last week they lost 42-24.

OK, so Cal isn't a top 25 team, but they are improved over last year and have a good chance to pick up three more wins and go bowling for the first time in years. They play three very winnable games in a row, beginning this weekend with so-so Arizona, followed by two against the worst in the Pac12, UCLA and Oregon State. Defeating that trio would give the Bears six wins before they tackle the tough part of the schedule. 

In the Arizona game, even the odds-makers are on Cal's side, favoring them by two points on the road. The Wildcats, under new coach Kevin Sumlin, are off to a wobbly start, beating only Southern Utah and Oregon State. They did do their best work of the season last week in the fourth quarter of last week's 24-20 loss to USC which, with turnovers and penalties, nearly gave the game away.

Running is the key to this game. Cal, averaging about 200 yards per game on the ground, ran for 241 against Oregon, featuring RB Patrick Laird and QB Brandon McIlwain. Oregon has a solid run defense, Arizona does not, surrendering about 200 yards per game. The Bears should win that ground war.

Arizona's offense lives and dies with QB Khalil Tate, who is having an off year so far. He's a great runner and a not-so-great passer. This year teams have bottled up his running and forced him to rely on passing, which has stymied the offense. Look for the Bears to go with a heavy dose of that formula.