Pac12 Preview: Washington and Cal Win

Let's face it. This Rose Bowl battle between the worst in the Pac12 (0-4 UCLA) and by far the best (3-1 Washington), is one Bruins can't possibly win. The quality gap between the players of these teams is enormous. If Husky coach Chris Petersen rested his starters and played only the backups the Bruins might have a shot.

Here's the core of this contest. Washington's strength is its blazing fast, swarming defense, which leads the country in scoring defense, and will mercilessly destroy the Bruins' awful offense line, the team's major weakness. Because of the O line, the Bruins can't run, averaging a pathetic 136 yards a game. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who looks totally confused at times, gets a little better each week but he's still a long way from being a polished field general.

On offense Washington is no Oklahoma, so they are unlikely to sweep the Bruins away with a tsunami of points. That's because Husky QB Jake Browning is good but far from great, so the offense doesn't blow opponents out. Don't be surprised if UCLA, at home, starts feeling its oats and beats that 21-point spread.

Cal  (3-1) v Arizona ( 2-3) in Tuscon

Some pundits say Cal, which started at 3-0 and rose to No. 24, didn't belong in the top 25 because two of the wins were over patsies and one was only over fairly decent BYU. Boy, were the pundits right. When the Bears faced a really good Oregon team last week they lost 42-24.

OK, so Cal isn't a top 25 team, but they are improved over last year and have a good chance to pick up three more wins and go bowling for the first time in years. They play three very winnable games in a row, beginning this weekend with so-so Arizona, followed by two against the worst in the Pac12, UCLA and Oregon State. Defeating that trio would give the Bears six wins before they tackle the tough part of the schedule. 

In the Arizona game, even the odds-makers are on Cal's side, favoring them by two points on the road. The Wildcats, under new coach Kevin Sumlin, are off to a wobbly start, beating only Southern Utah and Oregon State. They did do their best work of the season last week in the fourth quarter of last week's 24-20 loss to USC which, with turnovers and penalties, nearly gave the game away.

Running is the key to this game. Cal, averaging about 200 yards per game on the ground, ran for 241 against Oregon, featuring RB Patrick Laird and QB Brandon McIlwain. Oregon has a solid run defense, Arizona does not, surrendering about 200 yards per game. The Bears should win that ground war.

Arizona's offense lives and dies with QB Khalil Tate, who is having an off year so far. He's a great runner and a not-so-great passer. This year teams have bottled up his running and forced him to rely on passing, which has stymied the offense. Look for the Bears to go with a heavy dose of that formula.