Sunday, December 18, 2011

Denver vs. Tebow--For Gamblers

If you're going to bet the Denver-New England game, forget all that Tebow-has-a-pipeline-to-Jesus nonsense. There are five reasons teams win or lose--talent, injuries, play-calling, mental attitude and mistakes. Jesus has nothing to do with it.

After consulting with astute members of the gambling community, it's clear that the absolute key to this game is the availability of two injured players in the Denver secondary--saftey Brian Dawkins and corner Andre Goodman. To win, Denver has to limit Patriot QB Tom Brady's passes to WR Wes Welker and TE Ron Gronkowski. Without Dawkins and Goodman it will be nearly impossible for Denver to win. Even with that pair at less than 100% it will be tough.

This game is all about the Patriots' passing vs. Denver's secondary. The Broncos have a chance if they keep the Pats' potent offense at bay. That will keep the score down and within range of Denver's formula--strong running backed by tough defense.

A big reason the Broncos has won all these games is, quite simply, they haven't faced any superb pass offenses. Their lone encounter--against the Lions' passing game--resulted in the only loss in the Tebow streak. Dealing with somebody like Brady is a first for the Broncos. Denver will score against the awful Patriot defense, but can they keep pace if the Broncos' secondary isn't healthy?

Bet at the last second. If Dawkins and Goodman aren't playing or seem too damaged to play, go for the Patriots. Against a banged-up Denver secondary, New England will easily cover that 6-7 point spread.