How Stanford Will Win The Big Game

Stanford (7-4) at (Cal (7-4)




The preseason predictions for both Cal and Stanford turned out to be dead wrong,

Back then the consensus was that Stanford, ranked in the No.10-15 range, would be in the battle for Pac12 supremacy, led by Heisman candidate, RB Bryce Love. But because Love has been banged up all season, the running game fizzled, and so did Stanford's championship hopes. So the Cardinal morphed into a passing team, led by KJ Costello, arguably the league's second best QB after Washington State's Gardner Minshew.

Originally dismissed as a bottom feeder, Cal is one of the season's surprises, clawing its way to mid-level Pac12.  Under previous coach, pass-happy Sonny Dykes, Cal was all offense and no defense. But now, with defensive specialist Justin Wilcox at the helm, the Bears have spiraled to the opposite extreme--all defense and no offense. Cal boasts the Pac12's toughest defense, featuring the conference's premiere secondary. Cal's offense, just 109th in the country, isn't just ineffective, it's a liability. In mid season Cal lost a few games because the offense was averaging nearly five turnovers a game. Wilcox solved the turnover problem by elevating Chase Garbers to starting QB, but the offense is still horrible. Last week Cal nearly blew the Colorado game because the offense hardly ever got a first down, forcing the defense to wear down in the fourth quarter because it was on the field way too long.

Cal's offense is the key to the Big Game. For the Bears to win, the offense has to sustain drives and pile up first downs and allow the defense time to take breathers. The defense has to stay fresh to contend with the slick Stanford passing game. Cal's biggest problem on offense is crappy deep passing. That translates into relying too heavily on the run game, featuring Patrick Laird and Brandon McIlwain, That, however, means trouble since Stanford has a potent rushing defense.

Can Cal's offense flourish and not drag down the defense? Cal can win if this turns into a low-scoring game dominated by defense. But if this explodes into a shootout, the Bears don't have the offensive weapons to keep up.

The scrappy, never-say-die Bears might pull this one out but that's a long shot. Everything points to Stanford, a three-point favorite which has scored 97 points in its last two games, winning its ninth straight Big Game.

Who Wins The Apple Cup? WSU Of Course

Washington (8-3) at Washington State (10-1)

This is the game of the year in the Pac12, between the two best teams in the conference. The winner of this game, known as the Apple Cup, is the king of the Pac12 North and, next week, plays Pac12 South leader Utah for the conference championship. The Apple Cup winner is really the conference champ. Next week's game is anti-climactic. Either Washington team should dominate Utah.

State has, by far, the best offense in the Pac12, averaging 40.5 points per game. It's mostly via passing, lead by QB Gardner Minshew, who is on a roll. Last week he passed for 473 yards and seven TDs, while State piled up 69 points against Pac12 patsy Arizona. In his last two  games he has passed for 9TDs and no INTs. In his last four, he's been picked off just once.

Lately the Cougars.led by Minshew's passing, have been steamrolling teams. But they won't walk all over the Huskies, who have the league's best defense. The last time State played a defense of this caliber, Cal's--which is a notch less potent than the Huskies'--the Cougars barely won. Washington will certainly slow down the Cougars' explosive passing offense. Meanwhile, the Huskies won't be scoring a lot of points. The Cougars have the second best defense in the Pac12,  so Washington's very average offense, headed by veteran QB Jake Browning, won't do a whole lot of damage'

Look for an intense, grueling, tight game with both teams scoring in the 20s. State's home field advantage will be crucial. So will Browning's veteran leadership. Like all these rivalry games this one can go either way. But playing in Pullman should tip the scales in State's favor.

Pac 12 Preview: USC, Cal win

Pac12 Pick Of The Week:

USC (5-5) at UCLA (2-8)


Don't listen to USC coach Clay Helton. He insists his job is safe even though his underachieving Trojans need a win over UCLA this weekend or next week over Notre Dame to get to six wins to become bowl eligible. He's delusional.  He's lucky he wasn't canned after Saturday's 15-14 loss to Cal. Yes the Bears' ferocious D was the main factorin that win but SC was a major contributor with stupid mistakes, including penalties, turnovers, dropped passes and a critical bad snap, all indicative of poor coaching.

Another rap against Helton is his QB management. Freshman QB JT Daniels helped blow the Cal game with a horrible second half, highlighted by a miserable passing yardage total-- 33 yards. Some think there's a better QB sitting on the Trojan bench. In his college debut, the Arizona State loss, Jack Sears passed for 235 yards and two TDs, looking considerably sharper than Daniels. But Helton has blundered choosing QBs before, starting Max Browne, who turned out to be a bust, over Sam Darnold a few years ago.

In theory SC, with its superior personnel, should easily dispose of the Bruins, whose most glaring deficiency is a terrible run defense, which allows opponents to control the game via rushing. SC doesn't have a great ground game but it's good enough to roll through the Bruins who, to make matters worse, bolster enemy passing attacks with a feeble pass rush.

SC should win this one, but if they should lose or if its an ugly victory, Helton is a goner.





Stanford (6-4) at Cal (6-4)


The Cal defense, ranked 16th in the country and the school's best in decades, is the key to this game.
In the Bears' last four games, no opponent has scored more than 20 points. In those games the run defense has been superb, not allowing any team to cross the 100-yard mark.

The run defense isn't even the star of the team's defense. Actually, that is the secondary. Stanford's strength, however, is its passing game. In four of its last five games, QB KJ Costello has passed for at least 300 yards. You don't hear as much about Costello since Washington State QB Gardner Minshew, who's having a Heisman year, gets all the attention in discussions about Pac12 QBs. Costello, though, is having a great year, which is a bonus for Stanford because its running game has gone down the drain, since injuries have slowed star RB Bryce Love.

Stanford is a good team with a sturdy defense. Its four losses have been to teams currently in the Top 20. Its defense shouldn't have much trouble with Cal's wimpy offense. Essentially this game comes down to Cal's defense vs. the Stanford passing game. Who will get the upper hand?

It could go either way. You know how these rivalry games are. I'm leaning toward a Cal victory, based on the excellence of its defense, in a low-scoring game, but a Stanford win wouldn't surprise me.

Will Cal Finally Whip USC? YES!!!!!!

Pac12 Pick of The Week

Cal (5-4) at USC (5-4)


For the past 14 years Cal has been a patsy for SC--a guaranteed win. The Trojans are always much better, while Cal has hardly ever had a chance. This year, though, is different. Both have the same record, but Cal is actually superior. Here's one indication. With Utah at half strength due to key injuries, at the moment the two best teams in the Pac12 are Washington State and Washington. Well Cal beat Washington and last week lost to Washington State in the last minute, breaking a fourth-quarter tie. SC, however, has staggered through its conference schedule.

Because of too many shoddy performances by his team, Trojan coach Clay Helton may be out the door at the end of the season. SC, with three games left, needs a win to go to a bowl. They could easily lose to Cal or UCLA and most certainly will be trampled by No. 3 Notre Dame. For Helton to keep his job, the Trojans probably have to run the table--a real long shot.

This is far from the usual Trojan powerhouse. Their biggest problem may be at the QB position, with freshman J.T. Daniels a victim of inexperience and injuries. SC's usual strength, the offense line, has been a primary weakness. The defense has forced only seven turnovers and hasn't had an INT in its last three games. Another glaring negative: the team has been plagued by penalties, a sign of sloppy coaching.

Cal's major strength is a strong defense--bolstered by an exceptional secondary--that doesn't surrender many points. But its offense is weak. Cal generally ekes out victories in low-scoring games. If an opponent jumps out to a big lead Cal lacks the offensive punch to catch up.

Like USC, Cal needs a victory in its last three games--against the Trojans, Stanford and Colorado--to get a bowl bid for the first time in years. But beating USC, a five-point favorite, will be really tough. SC both plays well at home and in November, while Cal is a lousy road team.

Because of Cal strengths and SC's holes, this is Cal's best chance of beating the Trojans since that embarrassing string of losses began 14 years go. Last month Cal lost a string of games due to a rash of turnovers. Though they have cut down on the turnovers, that last-second loss to Washington State last week was set up by a turnover.

Cal usually finds a way to lose at the LA Coliseum but, this time, against a weaker-than-usual SC team, I'm gonna climb out on a limb and predict that the Bears will finally win one.

Pac12 Preview: Washington St Beats Cal, UCLA Loses

Pac12 Pick of the Week:

Cal (5-3) at No. 8 Washington State (7-1)

Though the Cougars deny it, there is a revenge factor in this one. Last year, when State was riding high--undefeated and in the Top Ten--they were shot down, 37-3, in Berkeley by the lowly Bears, who forced seven turnovers and spoiled their season. That won't happen this time. First of all, State is at home and Cal is a miserable road team. When the Bears routed Oregon State two weeks ago, that broke the Bears' conference road losing streak that dated back to 2015. Oregon State is awful. Cal still hasn't whipped a decent Pac12 team on the road in years. They aren't going to start this weekend.

This year State is just too good, with a close road loss to USC the lone blemish on its record. Like the flashy Oklahoma teams, State is propelled by a powerhouse passing game. QB Gardner Minshew,  a serious Heisman candidate, heads a unit that leads the nation in passing yards, 3183, topping 300 yards every game and 400 yards five times.

It'll take a skilled defense to corral the Cougars. Cal, though,  has that kind of defense. It'll be the best the Cougars have faced all season and the lone top-notch one they will confront until going up against Washington in a few weeks. In its last two games the Cal defense has given up only seven points to Oregon State and ten to Washington. The jewel of that defense is the super secondary, which has surrendered more than 200 yards just once, to Oregon QB whiz, Justin Herbert. Having to penetrate that secondary should slow down the State passing game.

Cal's problem is its very ordinary, low-scoring offense. If Minshew is able to get the State passing game to operate efficiently, Cal is cooked. They simply can't win a fast-paced scoring battle. The offense, however, has stopped self-destructing. For a three-game stretch, it was averaging about five turnovers a game.  But in the last two it has just one turnover. Penalties are down too. The total in Cal's last two games is a meager four.

Look for State, a 9 1/2 point favorite, to win this one. If the Cal defense is at the top of its game, the score will be close.



UCLA (2-6) at Oregon (5-3)

What's important about this game isn't the game itself. It's that it marks the return of Bruin coach Chip Kelly to Eugene, where he established himself as a first-rate coach. Kelly would dearly love to beat up his old team, but that's not going to happen. Last week, the Bruins were crushed by Utah. This week, they will most likely be crushed by the Ducks.

Oregon, which seemed like a Top 20 team early in the season. has been exposed as a subpar outfit, burdened with a bad defense. They were trashed last week by Arizona and looked horrible, particularly QB Herbert. But this week the Ducks get to take out their frustrations on a team that's in even worse shape. The Bruins are a mess, with QB problems, defensive woes, etc. You name it and it's going wrong for the Bruins.

An antidote for a reeling team is playing a team with more problems. For the Ducks, a 10-point favorite, the staggering Bruins are just what the doctor ordered.