How Stanford Will Win The Big Game

Stanford (7-4) at (Cal (7-4)




The preseason predictions for both Cal and Stanford turned out to be dead wrong,

Back then the consensus was that Stanford, ranked in the No.10-15 range, would be in the battle for Pac12 supremacy, led by Heisman candidate, RB Bryce Love. But because Love has been banged up all season, the running game fizzled, and so did Stanford's championship hopes. So the Cardinal morphed into a passing team, led by KJ Costello, arguably the league's second best QB after Washington State's Gardner Minshew.

Originally dismissed as a bottom feeder, Cal is one of the season's surprises, clawing its way to mid-level Pac12.  Under previous coach, pass-happy Sonny Dykes, Cal was all offense and no defense. But now, with defensive specialist Justin Wilcox at the helm, the Bears have spiraled to the opposite extreme--all defense and no offense. Cal boasts the Pac12's toughest defense, featuring the conference's premiere secondary. Cal's offense, just 109th in the country, isn't just ineffective, it's a liability. In mid season Cal lost a few games because the offense was averaging nearly five turnovers a game. Wilcox solved the turnover problem by elevating Chase Garbers to starting QB, but the offense is still horrible. Last week Cal nearly blew the Colorado game because the offense hardly ever got a first down, forcing the defense to wear down in the fourth quarter because it was on the field way too long.

Cal's offense is the key to the Big Game. For the Bears to win, the offense has to sustain drives and pile up first downs and allow the defense time to take breathers. The defense has to stay fresh to contend with the slick Stanford passing game. Cal's biggest problem on offense is crappy deep passing. That translates into relying too heavily on the run game, featuring Patrick Laird and Brandon McIlwain, That, however, means trouble since Stanford has a potent rushing defense.

Can Cal's offense flourish and not drag down the defense? Cal can win if this turns into a low-scoring game dominated by defense. But if this explodes into a shootout, the Bears don't have the offensive weapons to keep up.

The scrappy, never-say-die Bears might pull this one out but that's a long shot. Everything points to Stanford, a three-point favorite which has scored 97 points in its last two games, winning its ninth straight Big Game.