Pac12 Preview: Washington St Beats Cal, UCLA Loses

Pac12 Pick of the Week:

Cal (5-3) at No. 8 Washington State (7-1)

Though the Cougars deny it, there is a revenge factor in this one. Last year, when State was riding high--undefeated and in the Top Ten--they were shot down, 37-3, in Berkeley by the lowly Bears, who forced seven turnovers and spoiled their season. That won't happen this time. First of all, State is at home and Cal is a miserable road team. When the Bears routed Oregon State two weeks ago, that broke the Bears' conference road losing streak that dated back to 2015. Oregon State is awful. Cal still hasn't whipped a decent Pac12 team on the road in years. They aren't going to start this weekend.

This year State is just too good, with a close road loss to USC the lone blemish on its record. Like the flashy Oklahoma teams, State is propelled by a powerhouse passing game. QB Gardner Minshew,  a serious Heisman candidate, heads a unit that leads the nation in passing yards, 3183, topping 300 yards every game and 400 yards five times.

It'll take a skilled defense to corral the Cougars. Cal, though,  has that kind of defense. It'll be the best the Cougars have faced all season and the lone top-notch one they will confront until going up against Washington in a few weeks. In its last two games the Cal defense has given up only seven points to Oregon State and ten to Washington. The jewel of that defense is the super secondary, which has surrendered more than 200 yards just once, to Oregon QB whiz, Justin Herbert. Having to penetrate that secondary should slow down the State passing game.

Cal's problem is its very ordinary, low-scoring offense. If Minshew is able to get the State passing game to operate efficiently, Cal is cooked. They simply can't win a fast-paced scoring battle. The offense, however, has stopped self-destructing. For a three-game stretch, it was averaging about five turnovers a game.  But in the last two it has just one turnover. Penalties are down too. The total in Cal's last two games is a meager four.

Look for State, a 9 1/2 point favorite, to win this one. If the Cal defense is at the top of its game, the score will be close.



UCLA (2-6) at Oregon (5-3)

What's important about this game isn't the game itself. It's that it marks the return of Bruin coach Chip Kelly to Eugene, where he established himself as a first-rate coach. Kelly would dearly love to beat up his old team, but that's not going to happen. Last week, the Bruins were crushed by Utah. This week, they will most likely be crushed by the Ducks.

Oregon, which seemed like a Top 20 team early in the season. has been exposed as a subpar outfit, burdened with a bad defense. They were trashed last week by Arizona and looked horrible, particularly QB Herbert. But this week the Ducks get to take out their frustrations on a team that's in even worse shape. The Bruins are a mess, with QB problems, defensive woes, etc. You name it and it's going wrong for the Bruins.

An antidote for a reeling team is playing a team with more problems. For the Ducks, a 10-point favorite, the staggering Bruins are just what the doctor ordered.