Will Cal Finally Whip USC? YES!!!!!!

Pac12 Pick of The Week

Cal (5-4) at USC (5-4)


For the past 14 years Cal has been a patsy for SC--a guaranteed win. The Trojans are always much better, while Cal has hardly ever had a chance. This year, though, is different. Both have the same record, but Cal is actually superior. Here's one indication. With Utah at half strength due to key injuries, at the moment the two best teams in the Pac12 are Washington State and Washington. Well Cal beat Washington and last week lost to Washington State in the last minute, breaking a fourth-quarter tie. SC, however, has staggered through its conference schedule.

Because of too many shoddy performances by his team, Trojan coach Clay Helton may be out the door at the end of the season. SC, with three games left, needs a win to go to a bowl. They could easily lose to Cal or UCLA and most certainly will be trampled by No. 3 Notre Dame. For Helton to keep his job, the Trojans probably have to run the table--a real long shot.

This is far from the usual Trojan powerhouse. Their biggest problem may be at the QB position, with freshman J.T. Daniels a victim of inexperience and injuries. SC's usual strength, the offense line, has been a primary weakness. The defense has forced only seven turnovers and hasn't had an INT in its last three games. Another glaring negative: the team has been plagued by penalties, a sign of sloppy coaching.

Cal's major strength is a strong defense--bolstered by an exceptional secondary--that doesn't surrender many points. But its offense is weak. Cal generally ekes out victories in low-scoring games. If an opponent jumps out to a big lead Cal lacks the offensive punch to catch up.

Like USC, Cal needs a victory in its last three games--against the Trojans, Stanford and Colorado--to get a bowl bid for the first time in years. But beating USC, a five-point favorite, will be really tough. SC both plays well at home and in November, while Cal is a lousy road team.

Because of Cal strengths and SC's holes, this is Cal's best chance of beating the Trojans since that embarrassing string of losses began 14 years go. Last month Cal lost a string of games due to a rash of turnovers. Though they have cut down on the turnovers, that last-second loss to Washington State last week was set up by a turnover.

Cal usually finds a way to lose at the LA Coliseum but, this time, against a weaker-than-usual SC team, I'm gonna climb out on a limb and predict that the Bears will finally win one.