Bettors, outfitted as usual with blinders, still don't get it.
The Super Bowl line continues to be the New England Patriots favored by three over the New York Giants. So many gamblers are convinced that the Patriots will win, mainly because they insist that Pats' QB Tom Brady is this unstoppable force, that he can't be beaten, that he's better than Giants' QB Eli Manning.
Wrong. Forget the hype, take the blinders off, look at the facts and let them sink in.
For some reason, many are ignoring what happened in the AFC Championship game, that gift from Baltimore to New England. Who was the best QB in that game, which New England won 23-20? It wasn't Brady. The Ravens' QB Joe Flacco outplayed the Great One, constantly hitting throws in the clutch that experts swore he wasn't capable of making.
Compare their stats for that game. Flacco was 22 out of 36, for 306 yards, 2 TDs, one pick and a passer rating of 94.5. But Brady, with the same number of completions and attempts, gained just 239 yards, with no TDS, two interceptions and a puny passer rating of 57.5. Flacco won that round and he wasn't even throwing to an elite corps of receivers. Brady didn't beat Baltimore, it was mainly Baltimore that beat Baltimore.
In the Super Bowl, Brady won't be dueling grade B Flacco, but the Giants' Grade A Manning, who's much better than Flacco in just about every phase of the position. What's even scarier for the Pats is that the Giants have a top-notch receiving crew, featuring Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. In the NFC Championship game, this Giants' passing attack penetrated the 49ers' defense, one of the best in the NFL, for over 300 yards. The Patriots' secondary, featuring lead-footed safeties who are easily fooled, is one of the worst in the league. How do you think the Giants' high-voltage passing attack will fare against that unit?
The answer is obvious but many, many bettors, blinders firmly in place, won't go there. They're too busy idolizing Brady to let something like common sense get in the way.
More tomorrow.
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