Pac12 Preview: Oregon, USC, Cal, USC Wins

Pac12 Pick of the week: Washington (5-1) at Oregon (4-1)

The consensus is that Washington is the best team in the conference. Wrong. Oregon actually deserves that title.The Ducks were minutes away from being 5-0, but late in the Stanford game a few weeks ago they made some boneheaded plays and blew a game they had in the bag.

Oregon can remove any doubt about who's best by whipping the Huskies this weekend. It's mostly up to Duck QB Justin Herbert, arguably the best college player in the country. He's burning up the Pac12, hitting 76% of his passes in conference contests, while averaging more than ten yards per throw.

Washington has a superb defense which is primarily expert at stopping the run. When it comes to pass rush and sacks, however, the Huskies are just so-so. The Ducks' O line should give Herbert time--though with that quick release he doesn't need much time--to decimate that Washington defense. The Huskies' offense has never been that lethal, though it's been scarier in recent weeks since QB Jake Browning has sharpened both his mid-range and deep-passing games

Here's a sobering thought. UCLA freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson lit up the Huskies defense for 272 yards , hitting 71% of his passes and two TDs. If an unpolished freshman can do that to the Huskies' defense, what kind of damage can Herbert do?

Though favored by 3 1/2 points, Washington will fall to the Ducks.


UCLA (0-5) at Cal (3-2)

The most important aspect of this game is its location. It's in Berkeley. That most likely means a Cal victory. Give the Bears a losing team at home, especially a win-less team like the Bruins that counts heavily on underclassmen and you'll most likely get a Cal win,

But not so fast. The Young Bruins are improving, particularly QB Thompson-Robinson and RB Joshua Kelly, who has piled up 249 yards in the last two games. They don't score much. That 24 points they scored in the 31-24 Washington loss last week was the most they have scored all season. But that was by far their best game of the season. It was all the more impressive considering it came against the best team in the conference.

Cal is the better team but is horribly mistake-prone, with 14 turnovers in the last four games. One of Cal's few assets is nifty running QB Brandon McIlwain. But they have many deficiencies, like no deep passing game and no pass rush. Very easily, the Bears could commit a slew of turnovers and lose this game.

But the young Bruins aren't likely to play their best on the road so, with great caution, I predict Cal wins this one.

Colorado (5-0) at USC (5-2)

Oregon QB Herbert may be the best pro prospect among the conference's QBs but the most effective by far at the position is Colorado's Steven Montez, who has put the Buffalos on his back and carried them to respectability. He faces his toughest task this weekend at the LA Coliseum,

His problem  is two-fold. First he has to beat a conference team on the road, which is hard to do. Second, this is no ordinary conference team. It's one Colorado has never defeated, losing twelve times, dating back to 1927.

By high SC standards, this is a fairly ordinary Trojan team, riddled with flaws, like its penchant for committing penalties, while rarely generating turnovers. The guts of the offense is up-and-down freshman QB, JT Daniels, and a suddenly explosive RB Aca'Cedric White. After a shaky start due to Daniels' inexperience, the offense is finally clicking.

These two teams are fairly equal. The question is can QB Montez play at the top of his game and power the Buffs to a road win, finally shattering that long losing streak. He's unlikely do it on the road.

USC wins this one.