Friday, October 19, 2018

Pac12 Preview: Washington State, UCLA and Cal Win










Pac12 Pick of the Week:


No.12 Oregon (5-1) at No. 25 Washington State (5-1)

Parity reigns in the Pac12. There are no dominant teams, just four or five very good ones, including Washington State and Oregon, which are basically equal.

But the Cougars have the edge here, not only playing with two weeks off but also playing at home. Oregon thought they had it tough against Washington last week, but Duck QB Justin Herbert was able to operate back then with little pressure. It will be different in Pullman, where the defense will give him far less time to pass.

The Ducks' defense hasn't faced a passing offense like the Cougars'--one filled with lightening strikes. State QB Gardner Minshew is one of the best in the country--and one of the best kept secrets since playing in Pullman is flying under the radar. Minshew's stats are startling. The Cougars average over 400 yards a game passing, with Minshew hitting 19 TDs with only 4 INTs.

Overall Oregon is the better team, but look for State, a two-point favorite, to win Saturday and for Minshew to out-duel the much heralded Herbert.


Arizona (3-4) at UCLA (1-5)

This one is easy. All you need to know is that Arizona QB Khalil Tate, a monster dual-threat weapon and the heart and soul of the team, is out. If he's healthy, the Wildcats have a chance against anybody in the Pac12, Without him, forget it.

The Bruins are riding high, with back-to-back solid games against Washington and Cal. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is suddenly one of the best in the conference, hitting 40 out of 53 passes in the last two games, adding a deep-passing game to the offense. The O line has developed into a skilled unit, opening holes for RB Joshua Kelley, who now boasts a string of three 100-plus-yard games.

Arizona's Backup QB Rhett Rodriguez is just average and their run game is wildly inconsistent. The Bruins should stampede through the Wildcats' bad rushing defense. The Bruins, 8-point favorites, should cruise. If you are betting, take UCLA.

Cal (3-3) at Oregon State (1-5)

The worst team in the Pac12? It used to be Oregon State, but Cal, with three straight losses, is challenging for the title of best bottom-feeder.

The Bears, however, just might claw their way out of this losing streak. Their primary
problem has been turnovers, with a staggering total of 14 in the last three games. But the Beavers' defense has caused just five turnovers all season. That's just one of its deficiencies. Its most damaging flaw may be its inability to stop opponents on third-down plays. In that category State's D is last in the country. Also in Cal's favor is that State's weak run defense shouldn't be an obstacle to the Bears' strength--its run game, which stars Patrick Laird.

But the Bears, a seven-point favorite, are no cinch to win this one. A nagging hangup is an inability to win on the road. They haven't done it since 2016. However the Beavers' awful defense shouldn't get in the way and the Bears should easily handle their offense, which features just one big gun--freshman RB Jermar Jefferson, one of the best in the conference. It would help if the Bears were more effective at downfield passing but their ground game should be enough.

Prediction: Cal QB Brandon McIlwain stops throwing INTs and Cal finally conquers The Curse of The Road.



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