Kentucky vs. Baylor is a David vs. Goliath matchup. No way should Baylor whip the Wildcats. But that doesn't mean Kentucky is a shoo-in to reach the Final Four. Remember how that David-Goliath bout turned out.
Why should Kentucky win? Let's count the reasons. First of all, Kentucky is the usual hotbed of NBA talent. Most of Baylor's players aren't good enough to make the Wildcats' team. Second, defense usually wins in the later rounds of this tournament. Kentucky led the nation in field-goal defense and blocks. Baylor's defense isn't in this class.
Baylor does have a chance, though. Teams like Kentucky can easily beat themselves. What happens is that they get weighed down by their egos and excessive cockiness. And they make all sorts of mistakes. Kentucky should have been in control of their last game, against inferior Indiana, in the first half and cruised through the second half.. But IU was still in contention in the second half because Kentucky star center Anthony Davis hardly played in the first half because of foul trouble. In addition, the Wildccats' defense got lazy, allowing IU many easy baskets. Eventually Kentucky woke up and won. But making mistakes and letting inferior teams stay competitive is a dangerous practice. Sometimes the overwhelming favorite falls into a hole and can't climb out.
Baylor is a long-shot, a seven point-underdog. But if they give their all and Kentucky slacks off, David could upend Goliath.