Picking the Final Four is a lot easier when you're just choosing from sixteen teams. But, even starting at this level, it's possible to blunder. In seasons where some Cinderella crashed the Final Four party, you could spot the unexpected star a mile away. It's safe to say there's no Cinderella in this bunch.
The Final Four should be Ohio State, Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan State. The absence of defensive superstar Fab Melo is likely to halt Syracuse's trip to the Final Four. And North Carolina, with all its talent, still needs a healthy Kendall Marshall at point guard to top Kansas in the Midwest regional. Though a left-hander, his busted right wrist will either keep him on the bench or slow him significantly. Still, either of these two could slip into the Final Four, but don't bet on it.
The way things look now, don't bet against Kentucky. Like any ridiculously talented team, Kentucky may screw up in any number of ways--like players getting into early foul trouble, too many turnovers or frigid outside shooting. Or maybe freshman point guard Marquis Teague will get an attack of the jitters and have a meltdown. But any of these flubs isn't likely to happen in regional play. Well, at least the Teague stumble anyway. In the Iowa State game he showed he has ice water in his veins. Besides, the competition just isn't that formidable in the South bracket.
Kentucky should breeze by Indiana, which lucked into the Sweet 16, inching by VCU on a missed three-pointer. Then Kentucky confronts the winner of Xavier-Baylor. Xavier scratched its way into the Sweet 16 on the back of center Kenny Frease, who had the game of his life against Lehigh. But Baylor is far superior to Lehigh. In a regional final against Kentucky, Baylor can only win if Kentucky falls apart--possible but, at this level, not likely.